GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0660-1.0700

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4570-14610

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8190-1.8230

From the lack of traffic on the roads and the number of people on the train‎ there will not be a lot of people reading the commentary this morning, I think lot of companies are closed to get a jump on the Canada Day holiday.

The US dollar is mixed  this morning in quiet overnight trading markets. It is weaker against the Euro and Sterling but stronger against the Yen and the Canadian Dollar in very limited trading ranges.

Given the lack of people around we could have a very volatile morning as we get the release of the Canadian GDP report for April, the expectation is for an increase of 0.2% and a year-over-year growth rate of 2.3%, these numbers will be a slight increase over the previous month’s number. When you factor in an inflation rate of 2.0% there is very little real growth in the economy so a poor number should push USD.CAD higher.

We also get the Pending Home Sales Index out of the US and the number is expected to be down close to 10% year-over-year which is an incredible drop. Just over the last few weeks we have seen a major turnaround in the US economic reports and with the very poor US GDP report from last week the US recover is starting to look very bleak. This week we get the US Employment report on Thursday and if the US economy does not create at last 200k new jobs then we could see the US Dollar really get hit hard, either way we should be in for an active week after the holiday.

Have a great day and a great Canada Day.

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0525			1.0709
CAD/USD					0.9338
EUR/USD		1.3649			1.3612
EUR/CAD		1.4581			1.4581
STG/CAD		1.8199			1.8234
AUD/CAD		100.35			1.0082
CAD/JPY		94.86			94.94
CAD/CHF		0.8332			0.834
CAD/HKD		7.2344			7.216
CAD/CNY		5.8079			5.8111
CAD/MXN		12.1516			12.174
Commodities
Gold		$1,314.10			$1,311.00
OIL		$105.25			$106.32
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.02			80.26
OPEN		80.06			80.22
US 10YR YIELD		2.53%			5.56%

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0670-1.-730

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4550-1.4600

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8200-1.8250

My apologies, just a very quick commentary this morning as I will be on the road for the day starting early. The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as the dollar still suffers due to the poor GDP report earlier this week and the expectation that the US economy will need low interest rates for some time.

The Canadian Dollar had  a strong afternoon yesterday with USD.CAD setting new multi month lows, overnight it did give back some of that strength but the Loonie is still trading with a positive tone. For today I look for more of the same as yesterday, look for USD.CAD to stick around current levels and then some gradual strength over the course of the afternoon, I would not expect a big trading range.

AS mentioned I will be out of the office today, I can be reached via email as I will have my BB on, Have a great weekend

Mike

 

 

 | Website | www.gfxpartners.ca

 

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0695-1.0745

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4570-1.4620

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.8240-1.8290

The US Dollar is mixed  this morning as the currency markets react to the ‎horrible GDP report produced yesterday. In the first quarter of this year the US economy retracted some 2.9% which was far worse that the expectation.

The Pound approached a five-year high against the Greenback as the Bank of England announced measures to cool the rise in mortgage debt that is threatening the UK recovery. In Europe every time the Euro tries to get stronger it gets hit and falls back, I think once it breaks below the 1.3600 level and stay below then it will run lower.

The Canadian Dollar is again stronger this morning on the back of the weaker US Dollar, it looks like USD.CAD is set to make a multi-month low this morning.

Up today we have US Personal Income and Expenditures due to be released,  I don’t think they will have a big effect on the currency market. I look for the USD.CAD to trade much like it did yesterday, kind of hang around current levels and then slowly dip during the afternoon time frame. I think the markets will start to wind down tomorrow as more and more people will take tomorrow and Monday off for the Canada day holiday.

Have a great day
Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0709			1.0732
CAD/USD		0.9338			0.9318
EUR/USD		1.3612			1.3602
EUR/CAD		1.4581			1.4604
STG/CAD		1.8234			1.8222
AUD/CAD		1.0082			1.0052
CAD/JPY		94.94			94.9
CAD/CHF		0.834			0.8326
CAD/HKD		7.216			7.1979
CAD/CNY		5.8111			5.8061
CAD/MXN		12.174
Commodities
Gold		$1,311.00			$1,314.00
OIL		$106.32			$106.55
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.26			80.31
OPEN		80.22			80.4
US 10YR YIELD		5.56%			5.58%

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0720-1.0770

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4600-1.4650

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8220-1.8270   

The US Dollar is marginally stronger in quiet overnight trading conditions. The Pound continues to give up some gains as investors are starting to think that the Pound was pushed too high on this past run. The Pound was also hit this morning by poorer than expected Retail Sales report, given the latest comments from the Bank of England it is more than likely that Sterling will trade with a weak bias over the short-term.

Given the current situation in Europe the Euro is fairing quite well at the moment hanging in around the 1.3600 level against the Greenback. I think it will eventually break lower but for now US Dollar weakness is giving it some support.

The Canadian Dollar gave back a little strength last night but still trades in a narrow band below the 1.0800 level. The Loonie was able to pick up some gains both against the Euro and Sterling so the currency continues to do well against those currencies.

We should have a busy morning as we get a slew of economic stats out of the US headlined by the GDP report for the 1^st quarter. Given the relatively weak US data we have seen lately I am not surprised that the expectation for the GDP report is going to show a negative number. The expectation is for a drop in growth of -1.8% on an annualized basis so if it is greater than that we could see some fireworks. If we do get a big movement I will send out a currency alert.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0732			1.0726
CAD/USD		0.9318			0.9323
EUR/USD		1.3602			1.3627
EUR/CAD		1.4606			1.4611
STG/CAD		1.8222			1.8233
AUD/CAD		1.0057			1.0081
CAD/JPY		94.9			94.96
CAD/CHF		83.26			0.8327
CAD/HKD		7.1979			7.2057
CAD/CNY		5.8062			5.807
CAD/MXN		12.1489			12.1632
Commodities
Gold		$1,313.90			$1,324.00
OIL					$106.25
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.31			80.34
OPEN		80.4			80.22
US 10YR YIELD		2.58%			2.60%

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0700-1.0750

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4600-1.4650

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8230-1.8280

The US Dollar is mixed this morning as it is stronger against the Pound but weaker against the Euro. In the UK the interest rate hike game continues, this morning it was Bank of England Governor Carney saying that wage data in the UK was soft, immediately currency speculators took that to mean no immediate interest rate hikes so they sold off the Pound. Markets in the UK are hanging on any words that BOE officials make, it is really quite amusing. In Europe the Euro is higher against the Greenback despite another poor business report, the Euro is clearly benefiting from the weak US Dollar at the moment but given the current environment in Europe this can only be a short-term trend.

The Canadian Dollar had a quiet day yesterday and a quiet overnight session as it settled into its new trading range‎. It did lose some ground to the Euro but gained a little against Sterling as those currency pairs are once again trading in narrow bands.

With nothing of note on the economic calendar I am not looking for a big range in USD.CAD today. I do look for the inter-bank rate to test the 1.0700 level at some point, but we are hearing that there is a lot of interest to buy US Dollars at the big banks so the currency pair may find it difficult to break through.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0726			1.0732
CAD/USD		0.9323			0.9318
EUR/USD		1.3627			1.3582
EUR/CAD		1.4611			1.4578
STG/CAD		1.8233			1.8267
AUD/CAD		1.0081			1.0134
CAD/JPY		94.96			94.87
CAD/CHF		0.8327			0.8344
CAD/HKD		7.2057			7.201
CAD/CNY		5.807			5.7984
CAD/MXN		12.1632			12.1319
Commodities
Gold		$1,324.00			$1,312.00
OIL		$106.25			$107.00
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.34			80.42
OPEN		80.22			80.37
US 10YR YIELD		2.60%			2.60%