GFX Morning FX Commentary, February 29th, 2012

Good Morning,

Todays suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the US Dollar is .9850-.9950

Todays suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the Euro is 1.3260-1.3370

Todays suggested range for the Canadian dollar against Sterling is 1.5730-1.5850

My apologies for the delay in the commentary, we have had a very busy overnight session and I am just catching up on all the orders that were executed.

The US Dollar looks set to regain some strength today as the Euro is off of its highs and trading weaker this morning. The European Central Bank announced that they will be lending the regions commercial banks 529 Billion Euros in new three year loans, this number is much higher than expected and just highlights the grave conditions the regions banks find themselves in. EURO.USD which had looked like it was going above 1.3500 yesterday now awaits North American Banks to push it below the 1.3400 level.

STOP THE PRESSES!!! There is actually some life left in the Canadian Dollar, the Loonie  finally staged a bit of a breakout as it broke towards the .9900 cent level, still not a huge trading range but at this stage any volatility is welcome by the markets, it is important to note that this was a Canadian Dollar move and not something depended on the other markets. It looks like global investors looked at the ECB move last night and have made a consensus effort to get out of Europe and to invest in more secure locations and into higher yielding products, if this trend continues we should see USD.CAD move towards .9800 over the coming weeks.

We have just seen the US GDP report for the fourth quarter come in better than expected, further evidence of a slow recovery in the US. Equity markets should like this and will push higher, if recent trading patterns hold true then USD.CAD should drop further but we shall see if last nights developments will finally disrupt the overall trading pattern.

There may still be room for USD.CAD to fall further and I still think it will but every time over the past two months that the Loonie has rallied USD.CAD has quickly snapped back so for US Dollar buyers  it may be a wise strategy to buy a percentage of your  next three months requirements  at these levels. For short-term US dollar sellers you most likely need to lower your orders at least to par and possibly lower if you want to try and get a little extra value.

Have a great day
Mike

GFX FOREIGN EXCHANGE MORNING UPDATE

Wednesday, February-29-12

Market Indicators                   * For current market prices please contact our currency advisors or visit our
                                                  online site at www.gfxpartners.ca *

Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.99			0.9958
CAD/USD		1.01			1.0042
EUR/USD		1.3446			1.3437
EUR/CAD		1.3305			1.3383
STG/CAD		1.5765			1.5774
AUD/CAD		1.071			1.0719
CAD/JPY		81.37			80.76
CAD/CHF		0.9067			0.9001
CAD/HKD		7.847			7.7845
CAD/CNY		6.3539			6.3224
Commodities
Gold		$1,788			$1,778
OIL		$107.05			$108.30
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		10.67%			10.65%
1 Week		8.26%			8.21%
1 Month		8.46%			8.43%

GFX Morning Commentary February 27th, 2012

Good Morning,

The suggested range for the Canadian dollar today against the US Dollar is .9910-1.0025

The suggested range for the Canadian dollar today against the Euro is 1.3370-1.3500

The suggested range for the Canadian dollar today against Sterling is 1.5750-1.5875

The US Dollar is weaker this morning as the Euro has hit a three month high against the Greenback, the Euro has bounced on reports that the European Central Bank will add some 500 million Euro’s in 3-years loans to the regions commercial banks to help them re-finance their operation, this will be the second time that the ECB will be adding money to the commercial banking sector in an effort to help them maintain their solvency and to help stabilize the sector as they all take losses on European sovereign debt. Yesterday also saw the Euro shrug off the news of S&P placing Greece on “selective default”, I am not that familiar with the term but I believe that is the lowest rating a bond can have and I wonder if such a ruling then triggers a whole bunch of legal issues over credit default swaps (insurance policies against a bond issuer going bankrupt) being redeemed. Either way the Euro is still quite strong at the moment, we will see if my view that this is only temporary wins out over the next few weeks.

The equity markets continue to like the recovery story in the US and yesterday saw a better than expected US housing report and today we are expecting a good consumer confidence report which should keep the good news flowing.

With the weaker US Dollar overnight the Loonie has been able to rally stronger this morning and we are back below 1.0000, but as I have been saying for what seems like a very long time now we continue to move back and forth around par and until we get some significant developments we will continue that trading pattern, yesterday saw the US Dollar sellers with some opportunity for extra value and today it is the US dollar buyers that need to stand ready if we see a clear break below .9950, with no economic news out of Canada today and the expectation of strong numbers out of the States equity markets will be higher to start the day which should lead USD.CAD to test lower at some point, tomorrow may prove a little more exciting as we do get the US GDP report for the 4^th quarter and we will get a good idea just how big this recovery actually is.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX FOREIGN EXCHANGE MORNING UPDATE

Tuesday, February-28-12

Market Indicators                   * For current market prices please contact our currency advisors or visit our
                                                  online site at www.gfxpartners.ca *

Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.9958			1.0034
CAD/USD		1.0042			0.9966
EUR/USD		1.3437			1.3405
EUR/CAD		1.3383			1.3545
STG/CAD		1.5774			1.5922
AUD/CAD		1.0719			1.0707
CAD/JPY		80.76			80.34
CAD/CHF		0.9001			0.8953
CAD/HKD		7.7845			7.7273
CAD/CNY		6.3224			6.2768
Commodities
Gold		$1,778			$1,768
OIL		$108.30			$108.52
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		10.65%			11.02%
1 Week		8.21%			8.41%
1 Month		8.43%			8.40%

The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein are provided as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. Some of the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein have been obtained from numerous sources, and, notwithstanding GFX Partners Inc. (GFX) makes every effort to ensure that the contents thereof have been compiled or derived from sources believed to be reliable and to contain information and opinions which are accurate and complete, GFX has not independently verified and makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof and takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions which may be contained therein.  GFX shall not be liable for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein whether relied upon by the recipient or user or any other third party (including, without limitation, any customer of the recipient or user).  The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein shall not be considered as investment advice or as a recommendation to enter into any transaction. GFX, its affiliates, and/or their respective shareholders, directors, officers and/or employees may from time to time have long or short positions in any such products (including, without limitation, commodities, securities or other financial instruments).

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GFX Market Commentary, February 27th, 2012

Good Morning,

Todays suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the US Dollar  is 1.0000 – 1.0070. 

Todays suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the Euro  is 1.3410-1.3525 

Todays suggested range for the Canadian dollar against Sterling is 1.5870-1.5900 

The US Dollar is mixed  this morning as the Euro continues to gain strength on the resolution of the Greek situation and stronger equity markets but EURO.USD is off its highs as the G20 finance Ministers meeting in Mexico did not agree on providing any funding to the EU bailout fund. Overnight the Euro initially was marginally stronger against the US Dollar but has given up some of that strength this morning as equity markets are all lower and are also pointing lower to start the North American trading day, the Euro market will await the results of German parliamentary vote on the Greek bailout, it is expected to pass so we are not looking for any upset in the market.

With an overall stronger  US Dollar and weaker equity markets the Canadian dollar is marginally weaker this morning as USD.CAD has moved back near  parity but as the US Dollar started to recover during the overnight session USD.CAD also fell back but still is higher than where we left it on Friday.  Once again we continue to see the Loonie oscillate around par as it waits for a breakout, I think this trading pattern will continue for some time as the Loonie takes a back seat to other currencies

On tap today we do we more US housing data and it is expected to show a jump in existing home purchases which if the number exceeds expectation should give Equity markets a boost and the Loonie will recover a bit, later in the week we do get US GDP and employment report on Friday so the markets will get geared up for their release.

Have a great week

Mike

GFX FOREIGN EXCHANGE MORNING UPDATE

Monday, February-27-12

Market Indicators                   * For current market prices please contact our currency advisors or visit our
                                                  online site at www.gfxpartners.ca *

Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0018			0.997
CAD/USD		0.9982			1.003
EUR/USD		1.3405			1.3413
EUR/CAD		1.3545			1.3374
STG/CAD		1.5922			1.576
AUD/CAD		1.0707			1.0708
CAD/JPY		80.34			80.72
CAD/CHF		0.8953			0.9004
CAD/HKD		7.7273			7.7763
CAD/CNY		6.2768			6.3134
Commodities
Gold		$1,768			$1,782
OIL		$108.52			$108.30
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		11.02%			7.06%
1 Week		8.41%			8.50%
1 Month		8.40%			8.61%

GFX Morning Commentary February 24th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9930-1.0030

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3370-1.3500

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5750-1.5875

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as the Euro continues to show signs of strength on the resolution of the Greek situation, that being said the FX markets are still unusually quiet as the overall volatility in the FX markets has reached a three year low, Bloomberg is reporting that currency volatility has not been this low since August of 2008, just before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The Euro at the moment seems to be on a bit of a run and while I still think we will see a weaker Euro in the medium-term it is pretty hard to sell Euro at these levels if the short-term trend is going to push it higher, EURO.CAD has also pushed higher  so anyone needing Euro against Canadian Dollar should look at a pullback of EURO.CAD to 1.3325 as a good short-term buying opportunity

Canadian Dollar trading was virtually non-existent in the overnight market as the trading range for USD.CAD was incredibly narrow, we basically are opening this morning where we closed it at 4:30 Toronto time Yesterday, until overall volatility retruns to the currency market (and it will return, I have seen markets like this before) Canada will stay on the sidelines.

For today we have the release of the US new home sales report in the and it is expected to once again show a jump in home  sales, continued further evidence of a recovery unfolding in the USA. North American Equity market will like this report and should push higher again today, USD.CAD should drop a little affording US Dollar buyers a chance to pick up a little extra value, if the report is weaker than expectation USD.CAD should push a bit higher  back above parity, if US Dollar sellers  do see USD.CAD above parity I think they should jump all over it as we will see further movement back and forth around par for some time yet

Have a great weekend and try and stay out of the weather, I feel really bad for the people at the weather network, they have had nothing to  talk about all winter and finally a storm is on the way and it turns out to be a big dud so far, it must be tough if you are a “weather person” (incorrect  to say “weatherman” anymore).

 Mike

GFX FOREIGN EXCHANGE MORNING UPDATE

Friday, February-24-12

Market Indicators                              * For current market prices please contact our currency advisors or visit our
                                                                  on line site at www.gfxpartners.ca *

Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.997			0.9978
CAD/USD		1.003			1.0022
EUR/USD		1.3413			1.3298
EUR/CAD		1.3374			1.3272
STG/CAD		1.576			1.5683
AUD/CAD		1.0708			1.067
CAD/JPY		80.72			80.28
CAD/CHF		0.9004			0.9078
CAD/HKD		7.7763			7.7698
CAD/CNY		6.3134			6.3089
Commodities
Gold		$1,782			$1,778
OIL		$108.30			$106.41
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		7.06%			11.00%
1 Week		8.50%			8.51%
1 Month		8.61%			8.95%