GFX Morning FX Commentary October 31st, 2013

Good Morning

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0425-1.0500

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4230-14300

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling‎ 1.6750-1.6825

Happy Halloween, may the ghosts of previous financial crashes lie quiet this evening.

The US Dollar is much stronger this morning as the currency world reacts to the Federal Reserve announcement yesterday. The Fed as expected kept interest rates and its stimulus program at current levels but it did indicate that despite the shutdown the economy is still showing sign of improving which got investors speculating that tapering of stimulus could happen early into next year as opposed to the 2nd quarter. As a result of this stocks were hit and the US Dollar surged. Whether the gains made by the Greenback can be sustained will now depend on the economic data, as the Fed tapers investors will look for signs that the economy is growing and if it is not then stocks will get hit hard and the US Dollar will surge.

Yesterday saw USD.CAD surge up near 1.0500 on the Fed announcement, this morning the Canadian Dollar is quite strong as USD.CAD has pulled back towards 1.0450 and both EURO.CAD and GBP.CAD are lower by over 2% from their highs earlier in the week, so overall a great night for the Loonie. Over the medium I still favour a push higher but the Loonie could see a little strength over the next couple of sessions as it consolidates.

Up today we should have a busy morning with the release of some secondary US data and the release of the Canadian GDP report for August. We are expecting a growth level of 1.7% year over year and a monthly rate of 0.1%, these levels still show that the economy is barely growing more than the inflation rate so pretty much the economy is stagnant, a very poor number will quickly push USD.CAD back up towards 1.0500.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0447			1.0447
CAD/USD		0.9572			0.9572
EUR/USD		1.3658			1.3754
EUR/CAD		1.4273			1.4378
STG/CAD		1.6741			1.6791
AUD/CAD		0.9947			0.9938
CAD/JPY		93.94			93.99
CAD/CHF		0.864			0.8587
CAD/HKD		7.4148			7.4138
CAD/CNY		5.8285			5.8293
CAD/MXN		12.3985			12.35
Commodities
Gold		$1,335.00			$1,350.00
OIL		$96.87			$97.48
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.77			79.68
OPEN		80.04			79.6
US 10YR YIELD		2.51%			2.49%

GFX Morning FX Commentary October 30th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar 1.0425-1.0500

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4360-1.4430

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6770-1.6850

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as currency traders the world over ‎prepare for the US Federal Reserve announcement on interest rates later today. We are not expecting all that much in terms of news, the Fed won't make any changes to the interest rate nor given the damage done to the economy by the government shutdown will they adjust the level of stimulus. Currency traders will be looking for any hints of when tapering of the stimulus will start and if the Fed hints that it will be before the 2nd quarter next year then we could see some enhanced volatility.

The Canadian dollar is a bit stronger against the US Dollar this morning and slightly stronger against the Euro and Sterling. Everything for the short-term trading direction for the Loonie will be dependent on the Fed announcement but overall I still favour a move higher towards‎ the 1.0500 level. I still feel that pullback in USD.CAD will be limited over the short-term

Up today in addition to the US Federal Reserve we do also get the delayed US inflation report for September, if inflation starts to rise that may force the hand of central banks the world over but for the moment it look benign.  

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0447			1.0432
CAD/USD		0.9572			0.9585
EUR/USD		1.3754			1.3758
EUR/CAD		1.4378			1.4352
STG/CAD		1.6791			1.6773
AUD/CAD		0.9938			0.9908
CAD/JPY		93.99			93.61
CAD/CHF		0.8587			0.8604
CAD/HKD		7.4138			7.4294
CAD/CNY		5.8293			5.8355
CAD/MXN		12.35			12.4162
Commodities
Gold		$1,350.00			$1,344.00
OIL		$97.48			$98.15
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.68			79.4
OPEN		79.6			79.52
US 10YR YIELD		2.49%			2.51%

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary October 29th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling‎‎

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as currency markets retrench ahead of the US Federal Reserve interest rate announcement tomorrow. The Pound was weaker for most of the night but rebounded on some more positive economic data, this time it was the UK housing market that showed a better than expected rise in mortgage approvals, as long as the UK economy remains on a strengthening foundation the Bank of England should hold back on any further stimulus.

The other big currency mover last night was the Australian Dollar which fell about 0.7% on reports by government officials that a worsening trade picture will drive the currency lower.

The Canadian Dollar is unchanged against the US Dollar this morning but it did recover a little against the Euro and Sterling, the Loonie still remains under pressure against these currencies. Given the strong performances by European currencies of late I don't see this situation changing in the near future.

Up today we get a slew of economic data including the US Retail Sales report for September and the October Consumer Confidence report, we also get some secondary inflation data out of Canada so we could see a busy morning. Overall the sentiment still remains for USD.CAD to move higher at some point with pullbacks limited on the down side.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0432			1.0442
CAD/USD		0.9585			0.9576
EUR/USD		1.3758			1.3816
EUR/CAD		1.4352			1.4423
STG/CAD		1.6773			1.6922
AUD/CAD		0.9908			1.0037
CAD/JPY		93.61			93.46
CAD/CHF		0.8604			0.8557
CAD/HKD		7.4294			7.4235
CAD/CNY		5.8355			5.827
CAD/MXN		12.4162			12.5407
Commodities
Gold		$1,344.00			$1,361.89
OIL		$98.15			$97.94
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.4			79.34
OPEN		79.52			79.25
US 10YR YIELD		2.51%			2.50%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary Ocotber 28th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0400-1.0470

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4400-1.4475

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6900-1.6975

The US Dollar starts the last trading week in October unchanged for the most part as a major hurricane style storm has pretty much brought the financial markets in London to a standstill. Hurricane style winds have closed the airports and stopped the trains from running preventing staff from getting into the city centre. Sterling did get another boost overnight as it reached a four-week high after a report showed UK housing prices increased for a ninth straight month, so once again we see strong reports coming out of the  UK. The Dollar is stronger against the Yen as the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan indicated that the Central Bank is fully committed to its fiscal program.

In a quiet overnight market the Canadian Dollar is unchanged against the US Dollar from its Friday close but once again is weaker against both the Euro and Sterling, this trend should continue for the next little while.

With only housing data out of the US today, I would expect a very quiet day for the Loonie, we still favour a push up towards 1.0500 with any pullbacks limited to the 1.0400 level.  US Dollar buyers should be ready if we dip below 1.0425 today, with the weakness in the Loonie at the moment I just don’t see a situation where we will have prolonged bouts of Canadian Dollar strength in the next few days. The week should get busier as we get some important economic data as the week goes on.

Have a great week

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0442			1.0437
CAD/USD					0.9581
EUR/USD		1.3816			1.3806
EUR/CAD		1.4422			1.441
STG/CAD		1.6922			1.6903
AUD/CAD		1.0037			1.0014
CAD/JPY		93.46			93.13
CAD/CHF		0.8557			0.8558
CAD/HKD		7.4235			7.4232
CAD/CNY		5.827			5.8255
CAD/MXN					12.4393
Commodities
Gold		$1,361.89			$1,340.00
OIL		$97.94			$97.59
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE					79.25
OPEN		79.25			79.24
US 10YR YIELD		2.51%			2.51%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary, October 25th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0400-1.0470

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4350-1.4420

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6850-1.6920

The US Dollar is marginally stronger to start the North American session, it was weaker most of the night as strong growth numbers out of the UK and further expectation that the Fed will not taper its stimulus program until March of next year continue to weigh on the Greenback. In the UK the growth rate accelerated the most it has in the last three years so once again the news coming out of the UK is quite positive. Overall the US Dollar has lost over 1.1% in value on the US Dollar index in the past few weeks, the weak trend for the Greenback seems to want to continue over the next few weeks or least until we get some clear direction from the US Federal Reserve.

The Canadian Dollar continues to weaken off both against the US Dollar but at a much quicker pace against the Euro and Sterling, EURO.CAD looks like it wants to get above 1.4400 and GBP.CAD is trading near 1.6900 both recent highs for these currency pairs. Against the Greenback USD.CAD has moved higher by about 200 pips since last week so I would expect some kind of a reprieve for the Loonie over the next day or two, markets rarely move in a straight line so I would expect that USD.CAD will stabilize with a possible pull-back towards 1.0400 where I think we will set up for the next move higher.

We do have some secondary US Data due out today but for the most part I think we will see the Loonie close a little stronger than it has in the past few sessions.

Have a great weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0437			1.0398
CAD/USD		0.9581			0.9617
EUR/USD		1.3806			1.3793
EUR/CAD		1.441			1.4344
STG/CAD		1.6903			1.6821
AUD/CAD		1.0014			1.0005
CAD/JPY		93.13			93.59
CAD/CHF		0.8558			0.8568
CAD/HKD		7.4232			7.4506
CAD/CNY		5.8255			5.8477
CAD/MXN		12.4393			12.5407
Commodities
Gold		$1,340.00			$1,338.00
OIL		$97.59			$97.17
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.25			79.34
OPEN		79.24			79.26
US 10YR YIELD		2.51%			2.50%