GFX Morning FX Commentary, May 31st, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0210 – 1.0310.

Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the Euro is 1.2730-1.2850

Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against Sterling is 1.5910-1.6025

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as the European equity markets and the Euro were able to pull back some strength on positive economic news coming out of Europe. In Switzerland the GDP reported much better than expected growth numbers, The UK reported much better than expected, Ireland in a nationwide referendum is expected to pass the EU Fiscal treaty today and finally Germany reported better than expected unemployment numbers. Overall a great night for Europe and the Euro as it rose to trade back above 1.2500 against the Greenback but unfortunately it does not get rid of the Spanish and Greek problems so I am not sure just how far the Euro can rally at the moment.

The Canadian dollar was able to pull back a little strength against the US dollar last but is still trading in narrow overnight ranges, with the strength in the Euro and Sterling overnight the Loonie did lose a bit of ground to those currencies but is still at long-term highs against both of them making them attractive buys at the moment.

Trading today will be dominated by the US GDP report where we are expecting an annualized growth rate of 1.9%, anything higher than that should give equity markets a boost and the US dollar should fall back a bit, if it is worse than expectation I think we should see USD.CAD break above 1.0300. The market will then set up for tomorrow’s release of the US employment report.

Have a great day
Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Thursday May 31, 2012
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0272			1.0288
CAD/USD		0.9735			0.972
EUR/USD		1.2403			1.243
EUR/CAD		1.2742			1.2789
STG/CAD		1.5928			1.6029
AUD/CAD		1.0004			1.0037
CAD/JPY		76.67			76.81
CAD/CHF		0.9421			0.9383
CAD/HKD		7.5526			7.5412
CAD/CNY		6.1968			6.176
CAD/MXN		14.1209			13.6153
Commodities
Gold		$1,564			$1,547
OIL		$88.03			$89.06
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		14.36%			13.26%
1 Week		10.71%			10.68%
1 Month		11.20%			11.05%

GFX Morning FX Commentary, may 30th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0200-1.0300

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2760-1.2900

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5980-1.6100

The US Dollar is stronger this morning as the Euro has dropped to a 2 year low against the Greenback. Fears that the Spanish banking crisis is growing, a poorer than expected European consumer confidence report and an Italian bond auction that did not go all that well have all weighed on the common currency, EURO.USD fell to trade at 1.2430 and most likely will continue to trade weaker, this situation is not going away anytime soon. There are reports this morning hitting the wires that EU officials will meet tomorrow to look at re-capitalizing their banks with the funds coming from the EU rescue fund, we will see if this comes to fruition, if it does then Euro should get a temporary short-term boost.

With the stronger US Dollar the Loonie was weaker last night but it is actually hanging in there quite well at the moment trading in  narrow ranges around the 1.0250 level. If the European situation gets out of control you will see USD.CAD trade higher, it is a real nervous time in the currency markets at the moment and the Loonie will eventually be dragged along. The Loonie is still holding onto its strength against both Sterling and Euro for the moment, If you know that you will need these currencies in the near future you may want to consider doing some forwards at current levels and locking in these great rates.

With North American equity markets following their European counterparts by opening well down today there is a real possibility that USD.CAD could trade at the 1.0300 level but if it does I would not expect much of a follow through first time out.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Wednesday May 30, 2012
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0288			1.0234
CAD/USD		0.972			0.9771
EUR/USD		1.243			1.2525
EUR/CAD		1.2789			1.2818
STG/CAD		1.6029			1.6041
AUD/CAD		1.0037			1.0062
CAD/JPY		76.81			77.65
CAD/CHF		0.9383			0.9354
CAD/HKD		7.5412			7.5794
CAD/CNY		6.176			6.1996
CAD/MXN		13.6153			13.6447
Commodities
Gold		$1,547			$1,572
OIL		$89.06			$91.22
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		13.26%			12.84%
1 Week		10.68%			10.27%
1 Month		11.05%			10.99%

Today's Economic Calendar

USA
US Pending Home Slaes for April (14:00)
Various Fed Speakers today across the country

CANADA
Industrial Product Price for April (12:30)
Raw Materials Price Index for April (12:30)

GFX Mornihng FX Commentary, May 29th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0200-1.0280

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2810-1.2900

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6020-1.6120

The US Dollar is marginally weaker in narrow trading ranges, Asian equity markets got a bit of a boost last night on speculation that China was going to add some more stimulus to their economy (a rumour later denied by Chinese officials) and the US dollar traded a little weaker as a result of this, once the rumour was denied the dollar moved higher

In Europe the Greek election and banking crisis in Spain continues to hang over the common currency like the sword of Damocles , the Euro will continue to trade with a weak bias until the Greek election is over, hopefully common sense prevails and we don't see a breakdown of the EU. In Spain the government has taken control of the 4^th largest bank in that country has bad property loans have made it vulnerable to collapse. The Government plans to go to the bond markets in the next few days to try and raise funds to re-capitalize the bank, It will be interesting to see what support the bond markets give this ambition.

The Canadian Dollar had a quiet night as it continues to move away from its weakest levels against the Greenback last week. Keep in mind that the Loonie only weakened off because of the turmoil in Europe, if that situation continues then US Dollar sellers will benefit, but if the situation gets under control then I believe  we will see USD.CAD back under parity, locking in a percentage of your forward exposure now might not be a bad idea.

Up today we get the release of some secondary US data which should not have a dramatic effect on the markets,  with North American equity markets pointing higher we should see USD.CAD test lower in a narrow trading range today.

Later this week we get the US employment and I thought I would share an observation from my week-long trip to Orlando. In driving around the city I only noticed a total of 3 relatively small construction projects underway, if this is typical of most large US cities my question is how can you have a rise in employment and an economic recovery when there are no construction jobs being created?

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Tuesday May 29, 2012
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0234			1.0226
CAD/USD		0.9771			0.9779
EUR/USD		1.2525			1.2588
EUR/CAD		1.2818			1.2874
STG/CAD		1.6041			1.6057
AUD/CAD		1.0062			1.0163
CAD/JPY		77.65			77.57
CAD/CHF		0.9354			0.9337
CAD/HKD		7.5794			7.5881
CAD/CNY		6.1996			6.2013
CAD/MXN		13.6447
Commodities
Gold		$1,572			$1,577
OIL		$91.22			$91.76
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		12.84%			12.30%
1 Week		10.27%			10.17%
1 Month		10.99%			11.00%

Today's Economic Calendar

USA
Consumer Confidence for May (10:00 am)
Case-Shiller Home Price Index for Q1-(9:00 am)

CANADA
none

GFX Morning FX Commentary, May 28th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0210 – 1.0275

Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the Euro is 1.2825 – 1.2925

Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against Sterling is 1.6025 – 1.6125

GREEK POLLS SHOWING SUPPORT FOR PRO BAILOUT PARTIES
Risk aversion has faded on the latest polls out of Greece showing support for the pro-bailout parties.
The U.S. Dollar has pulled back especially against the commodity based currencies which were hardest
hit over the last few trading sessions. The U.S. markets are closed today for the Memorial Day holiday
so trading will be very thin once the London markets are closed. The sentiment hasn’t changed regarding the
Euro-zone as much uncertainty persists, especially the financial woes in Spain.
Also helping the commodity based currencies is that China may be looking at providing stimulus, helping
both oil and gold post marginal gains.
In the short term for the EUR/USD 1.2500 seems to be the support line with a close below this level signaling
further downside. On Friday we tested EUR/USD at 1.2500 with no follow through as we were very close to the Peg in
EUR/CHF at 1.2000 which the Swiss National Bank must defend by buying Euros.
Have a great day!

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Monday May 28, 2012
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0226			1.0252
CAD/USD		0.9779			0.9754
EUR/USD		1.2588			1.2578
EUR/CAD		1.2874			1.2897
STG/CAD		1.6057			1.6074
AUD/CAD		1.0163			1.0037
CAD/JPY		77.57			77.53
CAD/CHF		0.9337			0.9312
CAD/HKD		7.5881			7.5626
CAD/CNY		6.2013			6.185
CAD/MXN					13.6423
Commodities
Gold		$1,577			$1,563
OIL		$91.76			$91.05
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		12.30%			10.63%
1 Week		10.17%			10.39%
1 Month		11.00%			11.13%

GFX Morning FX Commentary, May 25th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0220 – 1.0295

 Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the Euro is 1.2850 – 1.2950

 Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against Sterling is 1.6025 – 1.6150

The FX markets seem to be stuck in a sideways range as long USD positions are reluctant to
cover with the expectations of a messy Greek exit from the Euro. The EUR/USD once again
flirted with its recent 22 month low only to bounce back, but the rallies are limited.
Pressure seems to be mounting for the European Central Bank to be more pro-active
and provide stimulus to the Euro-zone.  The U.S.  holiday weekend could still prompt
some unwinding of long U.S. Dollar positions.  The Canadian dollar remains stuck on
 the 1.0200 handle and should remain lackluster given the lack of economic releases today
 in North America. The only release due out today is the U.S. U of Michigan confidence
survey at 9:55am. The stock markets were uneventful overnight and the Dow futures are
oscillating around the flat line. Both oil and gold edged slightly higher overnight.
Yesterday there was some talk that the Swiss National Bank might look to raise the floor
on EUR/CHF which is pegged at 1.2000 with the actual price at 1.2025. Should the SNB
 act it would certainly prompt some short Euro covering.

Have a great weekend!

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Friday May 25, 2012
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0252			1.0236
CAD/USD		0.9754			0.9769
EUR/USD		1.2578			1.2579
EUR/CAD		1.2897			1.2879
STG/CAD		1.6074			1.6048
AUD/CAD		1.0037			1.0015
CAD/JPY		77.53			77.51
CAD/CHF		0.9312			0.9321
CAD/HKD		7.5626			7.583
CAD/CNY		6.185			6.1951
CAD/MXN		13.6423			13.6173
Commodities
Gold		$1,563			$1,566
OIL		$91.05			$90.96
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		10.63%			15.03%
1 Week		10.39%			11.28%
1 Month		11.13%			11.50%