GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0820-1.0870

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4290-1.4340

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.7990-1.8040

The US Dollar is unchanged for the most part this morning as it is marginally stronger against the Euro and marginally weaker against Sterling. In the UK the Pound rose to trade at 1.3190 as the UK Consumer Confidence report showed a positive gain while in the Euro-Zone the inflation report showed a declining rate of inflation which should give ECB Governor Draghi room to announce stimulus measures at next week's ECB meeting. The Euro still looks very vulnerable ‎at the moment and we could still yet see it hit the target of 1.3000 in the near future against the US Dollar.

The Canadian Dollar has settled into its new level, I would think that Burger King would be finished with their activity so any movement in the market will again focus on fundamentals. The Loonie had quite a run this week so it would not surprise me to see a bit of a pullback but so far that has not materialized.

Up today trading will be dominated by the Canadian GDP report for 2^nd quarter,  we are expecting a growth rate of 3.0%, last quarter the growth rate was 2.3% so at least we are moving in the right direction. In addition to the Canadian GDP we have a slew of US secondary data including Personal Income and Consumer Sentiment, I think we will have a very busy morning.

It is hard to believe that summer is coming to a close, thanks again for all the support this summer and have a great Labour day weekend.

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0843			1.0862
CAD/USD					0.9206
EUR/USD		13,183			1.3173
EUR/CAD		1.4297			1.4317
STG/CAD		1.7992			1.8015
AUD/CAD		1.0128			0.984
CAD/JPY		95.86			95.46
CAD/CHF		0.8432			0.8422
CAD/HKD		7.1268			7.7301
CAD/CNY		5.6648			5.6573
CAD/MXN		12.0633			12.0555
Commodities
Gold		$1,285.80			$1,294.50
OIL		$94.95			$93.85
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		82.52			82.69
OPEN		82.51			82.51
US 10YR YIELD		2.34%			2.33%

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0830-1.0880

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4310-1.4360

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8000-1.8150

The US Dollar is marginally weaker as the currency market sets set up for the release of the Canadian GDP report. Both the Euro and Sterling are at the same level against the US Dollar as when we closed last night,  the currency markets are on the sidelines until we get the US growth report later this morning. If we get a strong number then we should see the Greenback appreciate both against the Euro and Sterling.

The Canadian Dollar had a wild ride yesterday as USD.CAD smashed lower, most market pundits are putting it down to the fact that one US based bank was buying loads of Canadian dollars quite possibly for the Tim Horton’s deal. If this is true then this move for the Canadian Dollar will be short-lived as the recent trend of US Dollar strength will once again take USD.CAD higher, if it is the start of a resurgence for the Loonie then US Dollar buyers should still be looking to purchase some at these levels, if the Loonie rises some more then look to improve the average rate of your purchases.

As mentioned up today we get the US GDP report for July and we are expecting an annualized growth rate of 3.9% which would be down slightly from the 4.0% last month. A number stronger than this will see USD.CAD go back to 1.0900 and a weak number may give the Loonie some impetus to move towards 1.0800.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0862			1.0897
CAD/USD		0.9206			0.9177
EUR/USD		1.3173			1.318
EUR/CAD		1.4317			1.4365
STG/CAD		1.8015			1.8062
AUD/CAD		0.984			101.82
CAD/JPY		95.46			95.33
CAD/CHF		0.8422			0.8406
CAD/HKD		7.7301			7.0905
CAD/CNY		5.6573			5.637
CAD/MXN		12.0555			11.9867
Commodities
Gold		$1,294.50			$1,286.90
OIL		$93.85			$94.11
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		82.69			82.69
OPEN		82.51			82.58
US 10YR YIELD		2.33%			2.37%

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0870-1.0930

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4360-1.4410

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8060-1.8120

The US Dollar is weaker this morning with the Canadian Dollar the most active currency overnight(it is not often that I would say that to start a commentary). EURO.USD jumped a little higher overnight as reported profit taking on short Euro positions pushed the Euro higher. The Euro was also helped higher by stronger than expected Employment and Retails Sales reports.

The Canadian Dollar was the star of the show last night as the Loonie strengthened the most against any of the major currencies. On the face of it there was no visible reason for this move, the Loonie had been trading in tight ranges and with light volume. Since nothing changed on the economic or geo-political fronts I can only assume that someone came to the market with a large buy order for Canadian Dollars and caught the market by surprise. Given that Burger King just announced its purchase of Tim Horton’s yesterday I find it a strong  coincidence on the timing. Only the bank that executed the order will know for sure but this move could easily be explained by Burger King coming to the market and buying a few billion Canadian Dollars to complete the purchase of Tim Horton’s.

The strength of the Loonie against the US Dollar has also translated to strength against both Sterling and Euro so there are good opportunities for buyers of those currencies.

If this move is an outlier and not the start of a trend US Dollar buyers need to take advantage of it and react this morning, if it is not a trend and the order is completed the USD.CAD should pull back a little, make sure you do not miss this opportunity.

Nothing on the economic calendar today so I am not looking for a huge move today, as I said if the order is finished we should see USD.CAD pull back a little, further gains for the Loonie should be limited.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0897			1.0962
CAD/USD					0.9122
EUR/USD		1.318			1.3202
EUR/CAD		1.4365			1.4474
STG/CAD		1.8062			1.8169
AUD/CAD		101.82			1.0213
CAD/JPY		95.33			94.71
CAD/CHF		0.8406			0.8345
CAD/HKD		7.0905			7.0475
CAD/CNY		5.637			5.6121
CAD/MXN		11.9867			11.9608
Commodities
Gold		$1,286.90			$1,288.70
OIL		$94.11			$93.56
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		82.69			82.6
OPEN		82.58			82.56
US 10YR YIELD		2.37%			2.37%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0940-1.0990

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4460-1.4510

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8170-1.8220

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as currency traders take‎ some profit from the recent run of the Greenback ahead of today's US data. EURO.USD did touch a new 11-month low before pulling back and in Japan the Yen was stronger on the safe haven effect ahead of a planned meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Poroshenko.

The Canadian Dollar traded weaker yesterday towards the upper end of our recent range, it did recover slightly last night on the weaker US Dollar but certainly if we get very strong data today out of the US then I would think USD.CAD is set for a breakout higher.

Up today we get US Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed Business Index, as I mentioned strong US data should give USD.CAD a push higher and if the data disappoints look for USD.CAD to drop back towards the recent lows.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0962			1.095
CAD/USD		0.9122			0.9132
EUR/USD		1.3202			1.3199
EUR/CAD		1.4474			1.4456
STG/CAD		1.8169			1.8172
AUD/CAD		1.0213			1.0199
CAD/JPY		94.71			94.85
CAD/CHF		0.8345			0.836
CAD/HKD		7.0475			7.0557
CAD/CNY		5.6121			5.6185
CAD/MXN		11.9608			11.9739
Commodities
Gold		$1,288.70			$1,277.80
OIL		$93.56			$93.86
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		82.6			82.3
OPEN		82.56			82.53
US 10YR YIELD		2.37%			2.38%

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0930-1.0980

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4450-1.4500

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8170-1.8220

The US Dollar is stronger this morning as it has reached fresh yearly highs against the Euro and the Yen. In Europe, EURO.USD dropped below 1.32000 for the first time this year as ECB Governor Draghi in his speech at Jackson Hole indicated that inflation expectations have declined and more stimulus measures may be necessary. Fed Chairperson Yellen did nothing to change the view of the currency markets that interest rates will increase in the first quarter of 2105, continued strong employment numbers will be the catalyst for that rate increase.

The Canadian Dollar is unchanged and continues to trade in narrow ranges, with the weakness in the Euro the Loonie was able to extend some gains against the common currency.

Up this week we get a slew of US Secondary data including Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence tomorrow and on Friday we get the Canadian GDP report For June and the 2^nd Quarter. With nothing due out today to move the markets I look for a tight trading range without much volatility, I still look for a test of 1.1000 on the top side but for the moment the USD.CAD market remains subdued.

Have a great week

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.095			1.0957
CAD/USD					0.9126
EUR/USD		1.3199			1.326
EUR/CAD		1.4456			1.454
STG/CAD		1.8172			1.8156
AUD/CAD		1.0199			1.0204
CAD/JPY		94.85			94.62
CAD/CHF		0.836			0.8318
CAD/HKD		7.0557			7.0523
CAD/CNY		5.6185			5.6139
CAD/MXN		11.9739			11.9775
Commodities
Gold		$1,277.80			$1,282.00
OIL		$93.86			$93.61
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		82.3			82.15
OPEN		82.53			82.19
US 10YR YIELD		2.38%			2.38%