GFX Afternoon Commentary 29 Nov 13

Good afternoon,

Below are the current daily levels vs. the other major currencies.

USD.CAD 1.0625 up 0.42%

GBP.CAD 1.7396 up 0.59%

EUR.CAD 1.4440up 0.29%

We see the euro headed for a third monthly gain versus the dollar and yen after data showed inflation in the region rose more this month than forecast, fueling bets the European Central Bank will refrain from further stimulus.  The EURO is now up 0.01% against the US and up 0.14% against the yen.

The GBP rose to the strongest since August 2011 against the dollar as reports showing U.K. mortgage approvals and house prices both increased added to signs Britain’s recovery is gathering momentum. The GBP is now up 0.23% against the US dollar.

It was announced today that the Canadian economic activity expanded 0.3% on a monthly basis during September. At the same time, the GDP expanded at an annual pace of 2.7%, surpassing estimates at 2.5% and the previous 1.6% expansion.  The Canadian dollar briefly gained momentum after the announcement, but has since depreciated 0.42% against the US due to month-end demand.

The overnight expected range for the Canadian dollar against the USD dollar 1.0560-1.0660

The overnight expected range for the Canadian dollar against the Euro is  1.4390-1.4490

The overnight expected range for the Canadian dollar against the Sterling is  1.7340-1.7440

Have a great weekend and enjoy Black Friday shopping!

Barbara

Barbara Friedman  | GFX Partners Inc |Currency Advisor

GFX Partners Evening Commentary 27 Nov 13

Good afternoon,

Below are the current daily levels vs. the other major currencies.

USD.CAD 1.0595 up .51%

GBP.CAD 1.7230 up .79%

EUR.CAD 1.4373 up 0.46%

This morning saw the currencies react to the generous amount of economic data released before the American Thanksgiving holiday.

The Chicago purchasing managers index declined to 63 this month from 65.9 in October.  Even though the business activity edged down, it still beat expectations.  The data helped the US jump against the Yen 0.83%, its highest level since late May.

Data showed durable-goods orders declined 2% in October, compared to expectations of a 2.2% decline. The drop was largely due to fewer contracts for jumbo jets

Consumer sentiment rose in November to a final reading of 75.1 from 73.2 last month. The weekly U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly dropped by 10,000 to 316,000.  Many economists had predicted that the claims would rise to 330,000.

The Minutes from the Fed’s monetary-policy last week suggested the central bank may pull back on asset purchases at one of its upcoming meetings. The Fed has said improvement in the labor market is a key factor in its policy assessment.

The Canadian Dollar touched the weakest level against the US since July 5, as the price of crude oil declined for a fourth day to $92.04.  We saw the US rise 0.51% against the CAD.

On Friday, Canada’s GDP number will be released.

The overnight expected range for the Canadian dollar against the USD dollar 1.0540-1.0640

The overnight expected range for the Canadian dollar against the Euro is 1.4320-1.4420

The overnight expected range for the Canadian dollar against Sterling  is  1.7180-1.7280

Have a great afternoon.

Barbara

Barbara Friedman  | GFX Partners Inc |Currency Advisor

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar 1.0550-1.0625

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4360-1.4430

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.7220-1.7300

The US Dollar is marginally weaker ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday weekend. In Germany a strong business confidence report along with the government reaching a deal on public sector wage hikes (without a tax increase) helped to push the Euro higher against the US. In the UK a strong growth report helped push the Pound to an 10 month high against the Greenback, overall a great report for the UK but what would worry me going forward is the big drop in exports that the UK economy suffered. The rise in growth was built around domestic demand and a big jump in the housing market, clearly the stronger Pound is having a negative effect on overall economy as exports were off by more than 2%, not a great formula for future success.

The Canadian Dollar continues to settle in to its new trading range above 1.0500 but after a quiet overnight session the Loonie is being dragged weaker against the US Dollar this morning in response to its weakness against the Euro and Sterling. EURO.CAD has moved back to 1.4400 and GBP.CAD is at 1.7250 so great weakness for the Loonie against those currencies and that in turn  is driving USD.CAD towards the high end of our range and pushing It up against the 1.0600 level that we saw earlier this year. If we see the Euro and Sterling stabilize this morning the USD.CAD should pull back towards 1.0550 and remain their over the next few days if the Loonie continues to weaken against those currencies USD.CAD will be dragged above 1.0600.

Up today we get a slew of US data including Retails Sales for October and the release of the minutes of the last Federal Reserve Policy meeting so we may see some enhanced volatility this morning but then the market will slow down as the US closes up for tomorrow’s holiday. Just a quick reminder that with the US holiday tomorrow the US Dollar wire payment system will be closed so if you have an immediate need to send a US Dollar wire you will need to do it today.

Have a great day and to all our American readers our wishes for a very happy and safe Thanksgiving holiday.

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0543			1.0533
CAD/USD		0.9489			0.9494
EUR/USD		1.3545			1.3543
EUR/CAD		1.4337			1.4266
STG/CAD		1.7205			1.7036
AUD/CAD		0.9611			0.96
CAD/JPY		96.52			96.24
CAD/CHF		0.8579			0.863
CAD/HKD		7.3325			7.3539
CAD/CNY		5.7743			5.7825
CAD/MXN		12.4489			12.4435
Commodities
Gold		$1,250.00			$1,251.00
OIL		$93.27			$94.34
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.64			80.96
OPEN		80.55			80.77
US 10YR YIELD		2.72%			2.72%

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0510-1.0570

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4250-1.4320

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.7030-1.7100

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as the Greenback consolidates its strong gains from yesterday. News from overnight markets saw the Japanese Yen recover a little as minutes from the last Bank of Japan policy meeting showed that some voting members saw downside risk to the economy. The Euro was stronger overnight as the currency reacted to comments from the Chinese Central Bank Governor stating that the Euro was an important part of the Central Banks reserve currency program, a clear indication that the central bank is diversifying itself away from the US Dollar and holding more Euro.

The Canadian Dollar pulled back a little stronger overnight but for the most part still remains as weak as it has been in the last few weeks. As I mention yesterday I think we will see some consolidation for USD.CAD but I do not see a big pullback for the currency pair in the days ahead, we still favour a test of the yearly high up at 1.0600 at point in the next few days.

Up today we get a slew of secondary data out of the States so we may get a bit of movement in USD.CAD but for the most part I think it will be a quiet day, If we see USD.CAD break below the 1.0525 level I think short-term US Dollar buyers need to jump at that point and grab some US.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0533			1.0551
CAD/USD		0.9443			1.3527
EUR/USD		1.3545			1.3522
EUR/CAD		1.4266			1.427
STG/CAD		1.7036			1.7093
AUD/CAD		0.96			0.967
CAD/JPY		96.24			96.43
CAD/CHF		0.865			0.8623
CAD/HKD		7.3539			7.3407
CAD/CNY		5.7825			5.7723
CAD/MXN		12.4435			12.2972
Commodities
Gold		$1,251.00			$1,231.00
OIL		$94.34			$93.65
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.96			80.69
OPEN		80.77			80.9
US 10YR YIELD		2.72%			2.75%

 

 

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0525-1.0580

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4250-1.4330

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.7060-1.7130

The US Dollar is higher this morning as the world's currency markets react to the announcement of a deal on Iran's nuclear ambitions. The Euro is also lower on ECB official comments that they stand ready to reduce interest rates again if necessary, I am not sure just how much the ECB can cut further as most economists will debate how negative interest rates will affect the economy. The Pound is also weaker this morning on poor housing data,  USD.JPY had a big move last night as it almost reached 1.0200, the Yen continues to trade weaker thus helping that countries export economy.

The Canadian Dollar is again weaker this morning as USD.CAD continues to march higher, in the short-term I think it will consolidate around the 1.0550 level  before pushing higher, I would not be surprised if we hit 1.0600 later this week.

With little economic data today I am not expecting any big moves for USD.CAD, it would be nice to see a bit of a pullback towards 1.0500 to give US Dollar buyers a chance to get some at better levels but ultimately I think we will test the yearly high up at 1.0600 at some point this week.

Just a personal note on the Iran deal, as a student of history while I certainly hope this is a strong deal I am reminded of British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlin returning from Germany waving a signed letter by Hitler and proclaiming that he has "achieved peace in our time", we all know how that worked out. Also commiserations to all my fellow Tiger-Cat fans, with a new stadium next year 2014 will be our year.

Have a great week

Mike

 

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0551			1.0556
CAD/USD		1.3527			0.9473
EUR/USD		1.3522			1.3516
EUR/CAD		1.427			1.427
STG/CAD		1.7093			1.716
AUD/CAD		0.967			96.8
CAD/JPY		96.43			95.89
CAD/CHF		0.8623			0.8622
CAD/HKD		7.3407			7.3389
CAD/CNY		5.7723			5.77
CAD/MXN		12.2972			12.4025
Commodities
Gold		$1,231.00			$1,241.00
OIL		$93.65			$95.16
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.69
OPEN		80.9
US 10YR YIELD		2.75%			2.74%

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0500-1.0570

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4220-1.4300

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.7050-1.7182

The US Dollar is mixed this morning as it is weaker against the Euro but stronger against Sterling. In the UK investors’ hopes of UK interest rates rising sooner than expected were quickly dampened when Bank of England policy maker said in a BBC interview that the BOE will not be raising interest rates anytime soon. This statement pushed GBP.USD lower as the expectation that the recent Sterling strength may be overdone.

In Europe EUR.USD is stronger this morning as a business confidence report came in much higher than expected and pushed the Euro higher. In Japan the recent weakness in the Yen continued overnight as USD.JPY hit a new recent high of 101.30, it looks set to trade higher in the coming weeks.

The Canadian Dollar has finally broken out of his range and now looks set to test higher, I was not surprised at the move higher but I was surprised just how quickly it moved higher last night. For US Dollar buyers I think now you have to set your sights on 1.0500 as the best level to leave your orders, I do not see a big pullback from USD.CAD over the next few days, the pressure will mount to test the yearly high up at 1.0600 soon.

Up today we do get the Canadian CPI report and the Canadian Retail Sales report for September , I am expecting that these two releases will add some volatility to the currency pair and we will be quite active this morning.

Have a great weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0556			1.0458
CAD/USD		0.9472			0.9562
EUR/USD		1.3516			1.3468
EUR/CAD		1.4276			1.4088
STG/CAD		1.71			1.6874
AUD/CAD		0.968			0.9695
CAD/JPY		95.89			96.29
CAD/CHF		0.8622			0.8738
CAD/HKD		7.3389			7.4045
CAD/CNY		5.77			5.822
CAD/MXN		12.4025			12.5596
Commodities
Gold		$1,241.00			$1,248.00
OIL		$95.16			$94.18
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		81.01			81.09
OPEN		8089			81.07
US 10YR YIELD		2.78%			2.80%