GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0470-1.0540

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4080-1.4150

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6810-1.8880   

The US Dollar for the most part is much stronger this morning, It is much stronger against the Euro, Yen and Canada but unchanged against the Pound. In the UK the Pound dropped off dramatically after the UK Retail Sales report came in worse than expectation but underling the recent strength in the currency the Pound recovered those losses throughout the morning. In Japan, USD.JPY touched over 100.00 for the first time since September as the Japanese GDP showed growth slowed last quarter leaving the markets wondering will the Bank of Japan increase stimulus for that economy. The Euro was lower against the US Dollar has the region’s growth rate slowed (not surprising given ECB comments last week) but unlike Sterling the Euro has remained weak most of the night and looks to trade with a weak bias today.

The Canadian Dollar had a very busy night being whip sawed back and forth, the first move was an initial gain for the Loonie but after the US Dollar started to rally against other currencies USD.CAD started to break back up towards the 1.0500 level where we sit this morning. It will be an interesting day for the Loonie, most of the activity for the Canadian Dollar is against the Euro and Sterling but if USD.CAD is not able to break above the 1.0500 in the short-term we pay see it break lower towards 1.0400, on the other hand if the pressure on the Loonie is too much then I think we will break above 1.0500 and get ready for a move to 1.0600. I think this 1.0500 level is becoming a kid of pivot point for future short-term direction.

Up today we get some minor trade news so the Loonie will continue to get its direction in activity from the Euro and Sterling, Overall I still favour a move higher for USD.CAD but if we can’t break the 1.0500 soon US Dollar buyers may get a short-term reprieve.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0495			1.0488
CAD/USD		0.9528			0.9535
EUR/USD		1.3436			1.3419
EUR/CAD		1.4105			1.4076
STG/CAD		1.6816			1.6739
AUD/CAD		0.9754			0.9758
CAD/JPY		0.9521			94.84
CAD/CHF		0.8741			0.8749
CAD/HKD		7.3816			7.3861
CAD/CNY		5.8025			5.8208
CAD/MXN		12.4496			12.5741
Commodities
Gold		$1,282.00			$1,274.00
OIL		$93.64			$93.17
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		81			81.22
OPEN		81.19			81.24
US 10YR YIELD		2.72%			2.76%