GFX Morning Commentary-Currency Alert

Good Morning,

The Canadian Dollar continues to get absolutely hammered, both the US and Canadian GDP reports have disappointed but USD.CAD has risen over 100 points in the last half hour.

It is time for the Bank of Canada to intervene in the markets and bring some stability to the Canadian Dollar, this type of movement Is not good for anybody.

Mike

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.2625-1.2700

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4330-1.4400

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.9050-1.9130

The US Dollar this morning is pretty much weaker against everything but the Canadian Dollar as the financial markets await the latest GDP numbers from both the US and Canada. The US Dollar continues to garner strength from the expectation that the US Federal Reserve Bank will increase interest rates this summer.

The Canadian Dollar had a rough day yesterday against just about everything, USD.CAD is closing in on 1.2700 a new multi-year high, EURO.CAD has jumped to 1.4300 and GBP.CAD is well above 1.90 (it looks like we are heading back to 2.00), there appears to be no respite for the Canadian Dollar. It is not often in 35 years that I have seen a currency lose so much value with at least a pause. The National Post said yesterday that over the last 2 years the Canadian Dollar has declined over 19% , I am not sure that this is a coincidence but it ties in with the time Stephen Poloz took over at the Bank of Canada. Poloz came from the EDC so perhaps he wanted to weaken the Loonie to help exporters, I can be pretty sure he did not forecast a plunge in the price of oil.

As mentioned today we have both US and Canadian GDP, in the US 4^th quarter (annualized) GDP is expected to have grown by 3.0% that is down from the previous quarter of 5.0%, in Canada we are expecting a monthly (November) growth rate of 0.1% down from 0.3% in October. If the US number is above expectation and the Canadian number below expectation the Canadian dollar will get smashed.

Have a great weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening			4pm close Thursday
USD/CAD	1.2655				1.2547				1.2547
CAD/USD	0.7902				0.797				0.7970
EUR/USD	1.1354				1.1323				1.1315
EUR/CAD	1.4377				1.4209				1.4269
STG/CAD	1.9101				1.8987				1.8997
AUD/CAD	0.9829				0.9769				0.9796
CAD/JPY	92.94				93.91				93.7900
CAD/CHF	0.7287				0.7302				0.7322
CAD/HKD	6.1051				6.1568				6.1266
CAD/CNY	4.9392				4.9665				4.9429
CAD/MXN	11.7643				11.8229				11.7637
Commodities
Gold	$1,263.00				$1,266.00				$1,255.00
OIL	$45.10				$44.28				$44.60
US DOLLAR INDEX
OPEN	94.52				94.53				94.73
US 10YR YIELD	1.71%				1.73%				1.76%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today‘s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.2520-1.2590

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4200-1.4270

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8990-1.9060

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as the world’s currency traders digest the news that the US Federal Reserve is still on pace to increase interest rates sometime this year. The Euro continues its limited rebound as it now trades above 1.1300, it is probably only a matter of time before the Euro gets hits again, it is such a financial mess in Europe at the moment. Sterling is a little weaker as the UK reported some slightly disappointing housing numbers but it did trade in a fairly tight overnight range.

Not much to say about the Canadian Dollar that we have not been saying all month, after the US Federal Reserve announcement the USD.CAD jumped again and in light overnight trading it continued to rise, things can change quickly but right now it looks like 1.3000 is certainly in the offing.

Nothing of note on the economic front, just some US housing data, markets will get set up for tomorrow US and Canadian GDP reports. Look for more of the same for the Loonie today, USD.CAD moving higher with only limited pullbacks.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening			4pm close Wednesday
USD/CAD	1.2547				1.2425				1.2518
CAD/USD	0.797				0.8048				0.7988
EUR/USD	1.1323				1.1365				1.1281
EUR/CAD	1.4209				1.4125				1.4128
STG/CAD	1.8987				1.8886				1.8962
AUD/CAD	0.9769				0.9872				0.9896
CAD/JPY	93.91				94.78				93.7700
CAD/CHF	0.7302				0.725				0.7236
CAD/HKD	6.1568				6.2157				6.1699
CAD/CNY	4.9665				5.015				4.9820
CAD/MXN	11.8229				11.7935				11.7993
Commodities
Gold	$1,266.00				$1,291.00				$1,285.00
OIL	$44.28				$45.50				$44.50
US DOLLAR INDEX
OPEN	94.53				94.10				94.6
US 10YR YIELD	1.73%				1.81%				1.72%

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Currency Alert

Good Afternoon,

The US Federal Reserve as expected did not make any changes to their interest rate policy today.

In their statement they made the following observations

-The Fed is concerned with Short-term inflation but sees it recovering over the medium term

-Economy is staying robust and employment is gaining traction

-Fed is more bullish on the economy then it was in December

-Global growth is starting to be a concern.

With the above information the FED stated that it can be patient before starting to  increase interest rates. I think there plan is still for an interest rate hike later this year.

The Canadian Dollar has traded weaker on this report and looks set for another test of 1.2500.

Mike

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.2400-1.2470

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4120-1.4190

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8900-1.8970

The US Dollar is for the most part unchanged against the major currencies in quiet overnight trading,  currency traders are getting set up  for the US Federal Reserve interest rate announcement this afternoon.

The Fed is not expected to make any changes to the interest rate this afternoon but currency traders will be looking for direction as to the timing of future rate hikes. If the Fed pulls back on any interest rate hikes then we could see the recent run of the US Dollar grind to a halt, if the Fed feels that the crash in oil prices will benefit the US economy then they could still push ahead with interest rate hikes later this year as they have previously hinted at. Either way it should be a volatile day so make sure you have your orders in early.

The Canadian Dollar overnight gave back the gains it made yesterday against the Greenback and is once again poised to take a run at the 1.2500 level, with nothing else on the economic calendar the USD.CAD rate should remain settled ahead of the Federal Reserve announcement. If we do get a bit of a run in the rate after the announcement  I will send out a currency alert.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening			4pm close January 27th
USD/CAD	1.2425				1.2473				1.2402
CAD/USD	0.8048				0.8017				0.8063
EUR/USD	1.1365				1.1278				1.1375
EUR/CAD	1.4125				1.407				1.4106
STG/CAD	1.8886				1.881				1.8846
AUD/CAD	0.9872				0.9904				0.9839
CAD/JPY	94.78				94.56				94.9700
CAD/CHF	0.725				0.7214				72.6100
CAD/HKD	6.2157				6.1929				6.2301
CAD/CNY	5.015				5.0045				5.0328
CAD/MXN	11.7935				11.7024				11.8294
Commodities
Gold	$1,291.00				$1,281.00				$1,294.00
OIL	$45.50				$45.01				$46.20
US DOLLAR INDEX
OPEN	94.10				94.76				94.03
US 10YR YIELD	1.81%				1.81%				1.81%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.2450-1.2520

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4080-1.4150

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8860-1.8930

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as the New York markets gear up again as the storm to end all storms fizzled out and came to very little. The Euro got a bit of a jump this morning as the Swiss National Bank made the comment that it is ready to start intervening in the FX markets to weaken the Swiss Franc, that is all the markets need, the most notorious  Central Bank in the world sticking their nose back in the FX markets. In the UK GDP data for the 4^th quarter came in a little below expectation at an annualized rate of 2.7% in the 4^th quarter, Sterling got a little boost from this but still trades with a weak bias.

The Canadian Dollar traded weaker again last night and the USD.CAD rate had a quick look above 1.2500 but it was not able to sustain the move, I would suspect that it will get there at some point this week, there appears to be no end to the weakness in the Canadian Dollar.

Up today we have a slew of secondary US data, if the overall tone of the data is beneficial for the US economy you should see the US Dollar push forward again today, the market will use this data to look to the US Federal Reserve announcement tomorrow to see if they are still planning an interest rate hike later this year.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening			4pm close January 26, 2015
USD/CAD	1.2473				1.2451				1.2454
CAD/USD	0.8017				0.8031				0.8030
EUR/USD	1.1278				1.1235				1.1265
EUR/CAD	1.407				1.399				1.4035
STG/CAD	1.881				1.8704				1.8790
AUD/CAD	0.9904				0.9862				0.9866
CAD/JPY	94.56				94.9				95.0400
CAD/CHF	0.7214				0.7147				0.7147
CAD/HKD	6.1929				6.2024				6.1997
CAD/CNY	5.0045				5.0213				5.0185
CAD/MXN	11.7024				11.7716				11.7636
Commodities
Gold	$1,281.00				$1,282.50				$1,280.00
OIL	$45.01				$44.89				$45.11
US DOLLAR INDEX
OPEN	94.76				95.30				94.9
US 10YR YIELD	1.81%				1.79%				1.82%