GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.2425-1.2500

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3990-1.4090

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8700-1.8800

The US Dollar is mixed this morning as the Euro reacts to the news that the Greek anti-austerity party Syriza will from the next Greek Government sinks in. Not surprisingly the Euro is actually a little stronger against the US Dollar on this news, I think Euro speculators were very short Euro ahead of the elections and now they are taking some profit. The big question is what now happens with Greece, if the Euro-Zone does not forgive some of their debt(and I don’t think there is any chance of this happening) then in the coming months a showdown will occur and Greece could default, which I believe will lead to expulsion from the EU. Expulsion from the EU is something that was never considered when the EU was first formed so it will be very interesting to see how it all plays out.

In China the Yuan dropped to its lowest value against the US Dollar since last June as comments from the Government said that the Euro stimulus program will put added pressure on his country to lower the Yuan trading band and de-value the currency. This is something that will not make the US very happy.

The Canadian Dollar continues to lose ground to the US Dollar as again last night the USD.CAD rate moved higher, there is no reason to think that we will not have a test of 1.2500 this week. The Loonie has held onto recent strength against the Euro as overall weakness in the Euro Zone has seen the Loonie benefit.

Up this week we get loads of US secondary data including Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence, on Wednesday we get the US Federal Reserve announcement on interest rate policy and on Friday we get growth data from both the US and Canada, volatility should remain in place with the focus still calling for a weaker Canadian Dollar.

Have a great week

Mike

Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening			4pm close January 22, 2015
USD/CAD	1.2451				1.2408				1.2429
CAD/USD	0.8031				0.8059
EUR/USD	1.1235				1.1216				1.1210
EUR/CAD	1.399				1.3917				1.3933
STG/CAD	1.8704				1.8583				1.8631
AUD/CAD	0.9862				0.9878				0.9830
CAD/JPY	94.9				0.9501				94.7300
CAD/CHF	0.7147				0.7041				0.7085
CAD/HKD	6.2024				6.2264				6.2140
CAD/CNY	5.0213				5.0183				5.0098
CAD/MXN	11.7716				11.8448				11.7828
Commodities
Gold	$1,282.50				$1,295				$1,294.30
OIL	$44.89				$47.10				$45.46
US DOLLAR INDEX
OPEN	95.30				94.95				95.28
US 10YR YIELD	1.79%				1.82%				1.80%