GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1940-1.2020

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3890-1.3950

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8130-1.8190

The US Dollar is weaker this morning as global investors start to pair back short Euro positions ahead of the European Central Bank announcement later this week. I would think  currency speculators are starting to get very nervous after last week’s move by the Swiss National Bank sent shock waves through the financial markets. I read over the weekend that Citibank lost $125 Million dollars on the move, if that was what a US Bank lost imagine what the Swiss Banks lost!

In other news overnight the Chines Stock market fell over 7% as Chines regulators fearing a bubble took measures to curtail margin trading, this market will remain volatile for some time.

The Canadian Dollar had a quiet overnight against its US counterpart and has settled into a new trading range, with the Martin Luther King holiday in the US today I would not expect a lot of movement but stranger things have happened.

A very busy week on the economic front with the world’s Central Banks front and centre once again.  On Tuesday/Wednesday we have a two day meeting of the Bank of Japan, on Wednesday we have the Bank of Canada and on Thursday we have the European Central Bank. For the Bank of Canada announcement I will be interested to see if they downgrade their growth figures for the economy, there are views starting to form that with the current situation there is more likely the chance of an interest rate cut this year instead of an interest rate hike. On Thursday the ECB will announce their much anticipated stimulus program, my guess is that it will bring a temporary spike for the Euro and then the market’s will see just how effective the program will be. All of this activity is followed up by the Canadian CPI and Retail Sales numbers on Friday, we should be in for a very busy week.

Have a great week

 Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening			4pm close Thursday January 16
USD/CAD		1.1979			1.1986				1.1969
CAD/USD		0.834			0.8343				0.8355
EUR/USD		1.1592			1.1591				1.1563
EUR/CAD		1.3888			1.3892				1.3843
STG/CAD		1.815			1.8224				1.8140
AUD/CAD		0.9824			0.985				0.9856
CAD/JPY		97.93			97.31				98.2000
CAD/CHF		0.725			73.05				71.7800
CAD/HKD		6.4496			6.4455				7.7310
CAD/CNY		5.1901			5.1775				5.1872
CAD/MXN		12.2166			12.2429				12.1603
Commodities
Gold		$1,278			$1,259				$125.40
OIL		$48.65			$48.00				$48.40
US DOLLAR INDEX
OPEN		92.51			92.5				92.99
US 10YR YIELD		1.84			1.73%				1.83%