GFX Monring FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1000-1.1070    

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5200-1.5270

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8350-1.8470   

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning in very quiet overnight trading. As tensions seem to be easing in the Ukraine the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen seem to be giving back some strength, these are the two currencies (along with the Swiss Franc) that seem to gain the most in times of political uncertainty. The Euro is the strongest of the major currencies  as inflation came in just a little weaker than expectation giving the ECB room to add stimulus to the economy in April, EURO.USD traded to a high of 1.3800 earlier this morning.

The Canadian Dollar had a very tight trading range but continues to look like it wants to get stronger over the short-term, given the current momentum I would expect that we see a test of 1.1000 at some point this week. We do get Canadian GDP data this morning where we are expecting a growth rate for the economy in January of 0.3% which would be up from the December number where the economy contracted by 0.5%. A strong number may give USD.CAD the push it needs to test the 1,1000 level, a weak number will surely have us trading back above 1.1100.

Have a great week.

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1051			1.1016
CAD/USD		0.9049			0.9097
EUR/USD		1.3788			1.3729
EUR/CAD		1.5244			1.5129
STG/CAD		1.8398			1.8309
AUD/CAD		1.0206			1.014
CAD/JPY		93.35			92.86
CAD/CHF		0.7996			0.8057
CAD/HKD		6.9977			7.0211
CAD/CNY		5.6233			5.6375
CAD/MXN		11.8167			11.8751
Commodities
Gold		$1,295.00			$1,296.00
OIL		$101.24			$101.80
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.34			80.14
OPEN		80.18			80.21
US 10YR YIELD		2.74%			2.69%

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0980-1.1050

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5120-1.5200

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8300-1.8470

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as the Euro continues to weaken on the expectation that the ECB will cut interest rates at their next meeting. Overnight inflation data out of Germany and Spain showed that prices in Europe are still declining giving the ECB room to add stimulus.

Once again the commodity currencies were quite strong overnight with the New Zealand Dollar leading the way, there is a growing expectation that both Australia and New Zealand will increase interest rates next month.

The Canadian Dollar is unchanged after spending the afternoon yesterday once again getting stronger, the Loonie continues to shake off the verbal intervention from the Bank of Canada and has done quite well in the past week. I had an interesting conversation yesterday where one of my contacts told me a large US hedge fund was active in the market selling US dollars and removing the Canadian Dollar hedges that they had put on a couple of years ago. This company would have bought large amounts of US Dollars as they were concerned that the value of their Canadian assets would weaken if the Loonie traded weaker. They have certainly done very well with that hedge over the last two years but the fact that they are now taking the hedge off (selling the US Dollars) indicates that they are thinking the Loonie will recover over the medium-term, time will prove if they are right.

Up today we get some more secondary US data including Consumer Sentiment but for the most part I think the reports will be ignored and the Loonie should continue to trade stronger. Eventually I think USD.CAD will trade back higher and it will be a quick snap back but for the immediate short-term the Loonie looks like it wants to continue to improve. Buyers of Euro should really look at the rate today, it has dropped over 300 points in the last week and you need to take advantage of the cheaper rates.

Have a great weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1016			1.1087
CAD/USD		0.9097			0.9019
EUR/USD		1.3729			1.3755
EUR/CAD		1.5129			1.5253
STG/CAD		1.8309			1.8423
AUD/CAD		1.014			1.0234
CAD/JPY		92.86			92.14
CAD/CHF		0.8057			0.7991
CAD/HKD		7.0211			6.9747
CAD/CNY		5.6375			5.6014
CAD/MXN		11.8751			11.8511
Commodities
Gold		$1,296.00			$1,295.00
OIL		$101.80			$100.35
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.14			80.03
OPEN		80.21			80.12
US 10YR YIELD		2.69%			2.70%

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1065-1.1130

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5240-1.5300

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8420-1.8500

The US Dollar is again mixed this morning as the divergence in the Euro and UK economies continues. The US Dollar is stronger against the Euro as the expectation that the ECB will cut interest rates continues to weigh on the common currency and the Greenback is weaker against the Pound as yet again another strong economic report (Retail Sales) helps to push Sterling higher.

The so-called commodity currencies seem to be on a bit of a roll as last night the New Zealand Dollar jumped quite a bit on better than expected trade numbers and comments from Central Bank officials. The Canadian Dollar may be getting some benefit from the recent strength in both the Aussie and Kiwi Dollars.

The Canadian Dollar continues its strong run over the past couple of days, it continues to shake off the verbal intervention from the Bank of Canada which never lasts very long in currency markets, it had a quiet overnight trading session but continues to hold onto the strength it picked up yesterday. The currency was not able to break below the 1.1100 yesterday but it does look like it could trade there at some point today, I still favour a weaker Canadian Dollar but the Loonie may be able to extend is recent gains over the short-term.

Up today we get a slew of US economic data including the important GDP report for the 4^th quarter. We are expecting a growth rate of 2.7% which is up from the last report of 2.4%, a strong report could give the impetus to break back above the 1.1125 level today, a weak report should be enough to push USD.CAD below the 1.1100 level. Either way it should be a volatile morning.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1087			1.1139
CAD/USD		0.9019			0.8977
EUR/USD		1.3755			1.3798
EUR/CAD		1.5253			1.5372
STG/CAD		1.8423			1.842
AUD/CAD		1.0234			1.0283
CAD/JPY		92.14			91.85
CAD/CHF		0.7991			0.7951
CAD/HKD		6.9747			6.9439
CAD/CNY		5.6014			5.5758
CAD/MXN		11.8511
Commodities
Gold		$1,295.00			$1,315.00
OIL		$100.35			$99.31
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.03			79.93
OPEN		80.12			80.07
US 10YR YIELD		2.70%			2.74%

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1100-1.1170

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5340-1.5400

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling  is 1.8410-1.8480  

 

The US Dollar is‎ mixed this morning as it is stronger against the Euro but weaker against the Pound. In Europe yesterday ECB Governor Draghi stated that the Central Bank stands ready to add monetary stimulus (interest rate cuts) at their next meeting if needed. We are seeing a real divergence in economies at the moment, in Europe they are talking about cutting interest rates and in the US and UK the talk is of when interest rates will rise. Clearly a scenario where the Euro should trade weaker over the medium-term.

The other big currency mover overnight was the Australian Dollar where the Governor of the Reserve Bank stated that he sees the economy improving over the course of the year as domestic consumption is on the rise, AUD.USD jumped to trade at a 4-month high after the comments.

The Canadian Dollar is stronger this morning as it was able to hold onto the strength that it picked up yesterday afternoon, I think these levels represent good short-term value for US dollar buyers as we have seen just how fast the Loonie can move when it starts to weaken, make sure you have your orders in place to take advantage of this move. US Dollar sellers can leave their orders between 1.1150 and 1.1175 and if the recent trend holds you should see those levels again.

Up today we get the release of the US Durable Goods report for February which can create some added volatility in the market. I would be very surprised if USD.CAD was to be able to break below 1.1100 today but a weak report may just give it the impetus to do that, a strong number will help push USD.CAD higher.

Have a great day and if you are reading this in Atlantic Canada stay safe, it looks like you are in for a wild winter storm.

Mike

 

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1139			1.1203
CAD/USD		0.8977			0.8926
EUR/USD		1.3798			1.3815
EUR/CAD		1.5372			1.5485
STG/CAD		1.842			1.8492
AUD/CAD		1.0283			1.0249
CAD/JPY		91.85			91.22
CAD/CHF		0.7951			0.7874
CAD/HKD		0.7451			6.9412
CAD/CNY		6.9439			5.5246
CAD/MXN		5.5758			11.7587
Commodities
Gold		$1,315.00			$1,315.00
OIL		$99.31			$99.98
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.93			79.98
OPEN		80.07			80.02
US 10YR YIELD		2.74%			2.72%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1170-1.1230

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5430-1.5480

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8450-1.8520

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as the Euro has dropped off for the first time in 3 days. The common currency fell in response to a poor German Business confidence report but also because an EU official sated that a EURO.USD level of 1.4000 will be seen as very bad for a lot of the region's smaller economies. Once again we see verbal intervention as Central Bank's around the world try and influence the value of their currencies.

In the UK the inflation rate came in a little lower than expectation so further evidence that the Bank of England will be under no pressure to raise interest rates any time soon. Sterling for the most part was unchanged in overnight trading.

Nothing new to report on the Loonie, the interbank rate continues to trade around the 1.1200 level as it awaits the next big move, the Loonie is still feeling the effects of our own Central Banks verbal intervention last week and it should remain relatively weak over the foreseeable future.

Up today we get we get a slew of US secondary data including Consumer Confidence at 10:00am, none of these should dramatically change the value of USD.CAD so I look for range trading back and forth around the 1.1200 inter-bank level and the day should  be relatively quiet.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1203			1.1227
CAD/USD		0.8926			0.8907
EUR/USD		1.3815			1.3769
EUR/CAD		1.5485			1.5461
STG/CAD		1.8492			1.8516
AUD/CAD		1.0249			1.0227
CAD/JPY		91.22			91.2
CAD/CHF		0.7874			0.7887
CAD/HKD		6.9412			6.8884
CAD/CNY		5.5246			5.5158
CAD/MXN		11.7587			11.7752
Commodities
Gold		$1,315.00			$1,324.00
OIL		$99.98			$98.95
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.98			80.11
OPEN		80.02			80.27
US 10YR YIELD		2.72%			2.76%