GFX Mornign FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0800-1.0860

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4720-1.4780

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8100-18160

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning  as the currency market have all but ignored the poor US GDP report from yesterday and traded in a very tight overnight range, in over 30 years of FX experience I cannot remember when volatility was as low as it is now, EURO.USD trading in a 15 point range is almost unheard of yet that is what we saw last night.  The currency markets seem to be ignoring the 1st quarter US GDP which came in at -1.0%, this  was much higher than the expected -0.5% decline. Despite last night, overall the Greenback continues to gain against the Euro as the common currency continues to drop on the expectation that the ECB will start to aggressively add stimulus next week.

The Canadian Dollar continues to slowly strengthen against the US Dollar and also continues to make new ground against the Euro and Sterling. Loonie trading will be dominated today by the Canadian GDP report for March, we are expecting a growth rate of 0.1% (last 0.2%) with a year over year rate of 1.5%, when you consider that the US economy is contracting any positive number is good but even at 1.5% growth when you take into account inflation it shows that the Canadian economy is not really doing anything.

A strong number should push USD.CAD near the 1.0800 level and a weak number may start us on the road back to 1.0900, get your orders in before 08:30.

Have a great weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0827			1.0857
CAD/USD		0.9236			0.921
EUR/USD		1.3608			1.3618
EUR/CAD		1.4735			1.4788
STG/CAD		1.8118			1.8158
AUD/CAD		1.0077			1.0098
CAD/JPY		93.87			93.48
CAD/CHF		0.8279			0.8254
CAD/HKD		7.1398			7.1191
CAD/CNY		5.7683			5.7455
CAD/MXN		11.8927			11.8672
Commodities
Gold		$1,253.00			$1,253.00
OIL		$103.24			$102.88
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.48			80.56
OPEN		80.45			80.42
US 10YR YIELD		2.47%			2.42%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0830-1.0900

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4760-1.4820

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8220-1.8180

The US Dollar is weaker this morning as both the Euro and Sterling and strong overnight trading sessions. The Dollar is reacting to a decline in US interest rates and comments From US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen that the US economy still needs help. The US Treasury yield has hit a one-year low rate of 2.42% so clearly investors are expecting low interests rates to be the norm for some time to come both in North America and Europe. The market is also punishing the dollar on the expectation that today’s US GDP report will show GDP declined in the last quarter.

The Canadian Dollar had another quiet night as it continues to trade in very familiar ranges but given the weak US dollar I would not be surprised if USD.CAD moved to the downside this morning, I don’t expect a huge move but certainly the currency pair could test the previous lows of earlier this week.

As mentioned, trading today will be dominated by the US GDP report for the  1^st Quarter, we are expecting a decline in GDP of 0.5% after an increase of 0.1% the previous quarter. At -0.5% in itself is a disappointing number but anything worse than that should push USD.CAD lower, if the number is quite strong then we will see USD.CAD push back towards 1.0900

If we do see a lot of movement then I will send out a currency alert.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0857			1.0853
CAD/USD		0.921			0.9214
EUR/USD		1.3618			1.362
EUR/CAD		1.4788			1.4765
STG/CAD		1.8158			1.8189
AUD/CAD		1.0098			1.0028
CAD/JPY		93.48			93.87
CAD/CHF		0.8254			0.8268
CAD/HKD		7.1191			7.1378
CAD/CNY		5.7455			5.7607
CAD/MXN		11.8672			11.8841
Commodities
Gold		$1,253.00			$1,265.00
OIL		$102.88			$104.21
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.56			80.36
OPEN		80.42			80.44
US 10YR YIELD		2.42%			2.50%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0840-1.0900

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4760-1.4820

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8170-1.8240

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as the Euro is trading weaker (a 3-month low against the US Dollar) on a poor German employment report and also a report that bank lending fell last month in Germany, more clear evidence that the ECB will provide stimulus next month. The biggest drop overnight was recorded by Sterling which almost 50 points against the US, there does not seem to be any great reason for the drop has there was no UK news out this morning so it may have been a move in sympathy with the Euro.

In China the Yuan dropped the most it has in weeks as Chinese officials keep raising the band that the currency trades within. Despite all the talk about a free floating currency someday, Chinese officials keep taking their currency lower to cheapen their exports, a move which will surely aggravate the Americans.

The Canadian Dollar once again showed a small amount of strength overnight but quickly gave that back this morning as it continues to trade in tight overnight ranges. With the weakness in the Euro and Sterling overnight the Loonie continues to outperform those currencies. There is nothing on the economic calendar today so I am just looking for more of the same, a limited amount of Canadian Dollar strength confined to recent ranges. Activity should  pick up tomorrow when the first of the North American GDP reports is issued.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0853			1.084
CAD/USD		0.9214			0.9225
EUR/USD		1.362			1.3645
EUR/CAD		1.4765			1.4792
STG/CAD		1.8189			1.824
AUD/CAD		1.0028			1.0037
CAD/JPY		93.87			94.01
CAD/CHF		0.8268			0.8259
CAD/HKD		7.1378			7.1471
CAD/CNY		5.7607			5.761
CAD/MXN		11.8841			11.9005
Commodities
Gold		$1,265.00			$1,284.00
OIL		$104.21			$104.03
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.36			80.28
OPEN		80.44			80.27
US 10YR YIELD		2.50%			2.54%

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0810-1.0870

Today's expected range for the US Dollar against the Euro is 1.4770-1.4850

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8210-1.8280   

The US Dollar is marginally weaker in quiet overnight markets as the US and UK get back from their long weekend. The Euro had a narrow trading range as the currency market is awaiting a speech from ECB Governor Draghi later this morning where he is expected to highlight the bank's concern about deflation.

The Canadian Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as USD.CAD ever so slowly continues to move lower, the Loonie continues to improve both against the Euro and Sterling and looks set for further gains as we await both the US and Canadian GDP reports later this week.

Up today we get the release of the US Durable Goods report for April, lately we have seen a slowdown in economic releases from the US so a poor Goods report could help to push USD.CAD lower this morning, we are expecting a decrease of 0.7% so any number much worse than that could send the US Dollar on a bit of a spin lower. The US Dollar should remain weak as long as the US bond yields remains as low as they are, keep an eye on the 10-year US treasury bond which is trading at 2.54%, if that rate continues to drop then we should see the US Dollar trade a little weaker against the Loonie

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.084			1.086
CAD/USD		0.9225			0.9208
EUR/USD		1.3645			1.3639
EUR/CAD		1.4792			1.4813
STG/CAD		1.824			1.8291
AUD/CAD		1.0037			1.0031
CAD/JPY		94.01			93.8
CAD/CHF		0.8259			0.8241
CAD/HKD		7.1471			7.1134
CAD/CNY		5.761			5.7423
CAD/MXN		11.9005			11.8683
Commodities
Gold		$1,284.00			$1,294.00
OIL		$104.03			$104.02
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.28			80.37
OPEN		80.27			80.3
US 10YR YIELD		2.54%			2.53%

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

‎Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0840-1.0900

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4800-1.4850

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8270-1.8340

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning in very quiet overnight trading conditions, today the US market is closed for the Memorial Day‎ holiday and the UK was closed was closed for the Spring Bank Holiday.

The election of Ukrainian  billionaire Petro Proshenko to the post of President ‎hopefully will bring some stability to the region. Already Russia has called for direct talks between Putin and Proshenko but at the same time Pro-Russian separatists have taken control of the airport in Donetsk so the situation is far from resolved.

In Europe, a wave of Anti-European political parties made gains in elections to the European Parliament (UK independence party in England and the FN party in France were the two major countries that elected far right parties but gains were also made in Denmark, Hungary and Greece), these politicians all call for more sovereign rule and less interaction with the EU and in France the Government called for an emergency cabinet meeting to discuss the situation. I would say this mood of the population has to worry EU senior officials going forward, and this all stems from the poor economic situation in Europe. For now the currency markets have not paid any attention to this issue as the Euro was slightly stronger overnight but with a wave of Anti-Europe sentiment sweeping the common market you may see the ECB take even greater action to stimulate the region’s economy next week.

The Canadian Dollar continues to hold onto is recent strength but continues to trade in narrow ranges, it continues to make gains both against the Euro and Sterling. With the US holiday I should not expect any movement today but we should see some increased volatility as the economic calendar heats up towards the end of the week.

Have a great week

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.086			1.0903
CAD/USD		0.9208			0.9149
EUR/USD		1.3639			1.3618
EUR/CAD		1.4813			1.4851
STG/CAD		1.8291			1.8362
AUD/CAD		1.0031			1.0056
CAD/JPY		93.8			93.46
CAD/CHF		0.8241			0.8218
CAD/HKD		7.1134			7.1066
CAD/CNY		5.7423			5.7159
CAD/MXN		11.8683			11.8467
Commodities
Gold		$1,294.00			$1,293.00
OIL		$104.02			$103.80
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.37			80.23
OPEN		80.3			80.42
US 10YR YIELD		2.53%			2.55%