GFX Morning Commentary September 28th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar .9775-.9875

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2660-1.2750

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5850-1.5950

The US Dollar is mixed this morning as it is weaker against the Euro and a bit stronger against Sterling and the commodity currencies. The markets in Europe were buoyed by the Spanish budget that pledged to meet all their austerity targets, it will be interesting to see if they can in fact do this over the next year or just using rhetoric to buy them some time, the Spanish Finance department will also today release the results of the Spanish bank stress tests, earlier this year the Spanish Government asked for a bail-out for the Spanish banks so the markets want to know just how bad the situation still is.

Yesterday saw the announcement that one of the biggest Chinese steel producers was moth-balling a plant because of the global slowdown, this is something that China  is not used to doing and now the expectation is growing that China will announce a new stimulus program to get that economy moving again. This is an economy that has been used to growth rates of 6-10% every year for the past decade, If growth rates start to fall and unemployment starts to rise then we could see big problems with the highly regulated economy.

The Canadian Dollar is marginally weaker against the Greenback but continues to trade in tight ranges. Today the Canadian market will focus on the Canadian GDP report for July, we are expecting  a monthly rise in the growth rate of 0.1% and an annualized growth rate of 2.0% (down from the June growth rate of 2.4%). The US rate yesterday disappointed the market(revised down to 1.3%) and the fear is that if the Canadian growth rate starts to decline you may see the Loonie get hit hard. It will be something if the Canadian economy can maintain a higher growth rate than the US over an extended period of time, growth rates of 1-2% are hardly anything to get excited about but if Canada can hold on for the next year it should help the Loonie stay strong.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Friday September 28, 2012
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.9803			0.9831
CAD/USD		1.02			1.0172
EUR/USD		1.2933			1.2862
EUR/CAD		1.268			1.2647
STG/CAD		1.5883			1.5927
AUD/CAD		1.0204			1.0214
CAD/JPY		79.16			78.96
CAD/CHF		0.9533			0.9551
CAD/HKD		7.8859			7.8628
CAD/CNY		6.4075			6.4025
CAD/MXN		13.1034			13.0679
Commodities
Gold		$1,782			$1,757
OIL		$91.99			$90.89
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		7.58%			8.50%
1 Week		7.70%			6.80%
1 Month		6.90%			6.60%

GFX Morning FX Commentary Sept 27th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9800-.9875

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2620-1.2700

Today’s expected range for the Canadian dollar against Sterling is 1.5910-1.6000

The US Dollar is unchanged this morning as there were very little events of significance overnight to move the markets, the EURO is right were left it yesterday, it did trade weaker on reports that German unemployment rose for the 6^th straight month, in Spain there were reports of further protest in Madrid as the government introduced further budget cuts and growth measures to try and get that economy going and in the UK the economy grew at an annualized pace of -0.4%, a decline which was less than expected. On this report GBP.USD rose to trade at 1.6220 but it has since given back a little of the strength.

The Canadian Dollar pulled back a bit of strength last night (as did all commodity currencies) but continues to trade in very tight overnight ranges. This morning we have a heavy US economic Calendar led by the US GDP 2^nd Q report. The financial markets are expecting a growth rate of 1.7% so anything significantly less than that will hit the equity markets hard and drive USD.CAD higher. Ahead of that report it does look with equity futures pointing to a higher opening that USD.CAD wants to drop a bit further, if you do need to buy some USD today you might want to consider doing it before 08:30, in my mind is hard to imagine a US GDP report that will blow away market expectations so a big drop in USD.CAD I think would be unrealistic at this point  but we shall see. IF the number comes in as expected then I think the Loonie trading range will once again be muted

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Thursday September 27, 2012
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.9831			0.9809
CAD/USD		1.0172			1.0195
EUR/USD		1.2862			1.2862
EUR/CAD		1.2647			1.2618
STG/CAD		1.5927			1.5884
AUD/CAD		1.0214			1.0134
CAD/JPY		78.96			79.14
CAD/CHF		0.9551			0.9574
CAD/HKD		7.8628			7.8819
CAD/CNY		6.4025			6.3029
CAD/MXN		13.0679			13.1473
Commodities
Gold		$1,757			$1,766
OIL		$90.89			$90.69
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		8.50%			9.62%
1 Week		6.80%			7.07%
1 Month		6.60%			6.57%

GFX Morning FX Commentary Sept 25th

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9775-.9850

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2600-1.2700

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5875-1.5975

The US Dollar is weaker this morning as international equity markets are all lower on their reaction to the statement made yesterday afternoon by the  Philadelphia Federal Reserve member Charles Possler that the  recent round of QE announced by the Fed will do nothing to stimulate the economy, do nothing to create jobs and will help to raise long-term inflation. In Europe, the picture continues to look bleak and everything is pointing to a full Spanish bail-out,  Spanish government deficits continue to climb and the prospects of poor  bank stress test results have brought an end to the recent run that the Euro enjoyed. Also weighing on the Euro was the announcement that Italian Prime Minister Monti will not seek re-election, as a technocrat and not a career politician, Monti is very highly regarded in EU circles and with him stepping aside will leave a big void to be filled. There are reports that former Prime Minister Berlusconi might try his luck again, can’t say Italian politics are boring !!

The Canadian Dollar continues to trade back and forth around the .9800 level in very uninspiring ranges, with all the negative news hitting the market in the past couple of days and now with the  growing dissention on the board of the Federal Reserve going public it looks like we may see the Loonie give back some gains in the coming sessions as equity markets are once again getting nervous . In the US we only get new home sales so the markets should be once again trading in a subdued range, the economic data does pick up later in the week.

 

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Wednesday September 26, 2012
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.9809			0.9806
CAD/USD		1.0195			1.0198
EUR/USD		1.2862			1.2909
EUR/CAD		1.2618			1.266
STG/CAD		1.5884			1.59
AUD/CAD		1.0134			1.0188
CAD/JPY		79.14			79.27
CAD/CHF		0.9574			0.9545
CAD/HKD		7.8819			7.8836
CAD/CNY		6.3029			6.4295
CAD/MXN		13.1473			13.1928
Commodities
Gold		$1,766			$1,767
OIL		$90.69			$92.34
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		9.62%			11.49%
1 Week		7.07%			7.35%
1 Month		6.57%			6.86%

GFX Morning Commentary Sept 25th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9775-.9850

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2650-1.2740

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5880-1.5975

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as Consumer Confidence in the EU’s largest economy is declining, The Spanish Government is asking just how much Spanish debt the ECB will buy before it determines if it will apply for a full bail-out and large machine manufacturer Caterpillar announced a softened outlook sighting a slowing global economy. On these comments overnight equities gave back some strength and EURO.USD fell to trade at a low of 1.2895, It has pulled back from its lowest level but for now it appears that the Euro is running out of steam.

The Canadian Dollar had a very tight range overnight as it continues to trade back and forth around the .9800 level, we do today get the Canadian Retail Sales report for July but more importantly we get some more data on the US housing market which if it further confirms an improving US housing picture should give equities a bit of a boost and the USD may give up some gains. Given current trading conditions I would not expect much of a trading range but if you have been waiting to sell some US Dollars you should at the very least get .9800 at some point today.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Tuesday September 25, 2012
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.9806			0.9809
CAD/USD		1.0198			1.0195
EUR/USD		1.2909			1.2907
EUR/CAD		1.266			1.2662
STG/CAD		1.59			1.5901
AUD/CAD		1.0188			1.0173
CAD/JPY		79.27			79.52
CAD/CHF		0.9545			0.9544
CAD/HKD		7.8836			7.8804
CAD/CNY		6.4295			6.4245
CAD/MXN		13.1928			13.1891
Commodities
Gold		$1,767			$1,760
OIL		$92.34			$91.62
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		11.49%			9.89%
1 Week		7.35%			7.13%
1 Month		6.86%			6.63%

GFX Morning FX Commentary Sept 24th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the US Dollar is .9775 - .9850

Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the Euro is 1.2620 – 1.2720

Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against Sterling is 1.5850 – 1.5950

The markets to  begin the week are in risk aversion mode with  growth concerns paramount.

German business sentiment dropped overnight , the Munich based Ifo institute  showed the
Business climate index fell to 101.40 in September down from expectations of 102.30.
The European single currency was hardest hit as recent positive sentiment from the bold bond
buying plan of the ECB is losing its luster. Important growth data in the form of GDP will be released
later this week in the U.K., U.S. and Canada and will be closely watched for further economic deterioration.
The commodity based currencies are under pressure with both oil and gold lower. The Canadian dollar
is revisiting last week lows with investors unwinding some long positions. The recent inflation data released
last Friday showed a much slower pace than anticipated is also helping to undermine the currency.
Today’s economic calendar releases are all out of the U.S. with the Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
followed later by the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index. The Dow futures are pointing to a lower opening down 56 in pre-market trading.
 

Have a great day!

Mike
 

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Monday September 24, 2012
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.9809			0.9735
CAD/USD		1.0195			1.0272
EUR/USD		1.2907			1.3014
EUR/CAD		1.2662			1.2666
STG/CAD		1.5901			1.5842
AUD/CAD		1.0173			1.0199
CAD/JPY		79.52			80.29
CAD/CHF		0.9544			0.955
CAD/HKD		7.8804			7.9432
CAD/CNY		6.4245			6.4749
CAD/MXN		13.1891			13.177
Commodities
Gold		$1,760			$1,776
OIL		$91.62			$93.07
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		9.89%			8.70%
1 Week		7.13%			7.23%
1 Month		6.63%			6.68%

 

 

 

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