Thursday 27 September 2012

GFX Morning FX Commentary Sept 27th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9800-.9875

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2620-1.2700

Today’s expected range for the Canadian dollar against Sterling is 1.5910-1.6000

The US Dollar is unchanged this morning as there were very little events of significance overnight to move the markets, the EURO is right were left it yesterday, it did trade weaker on reports that German unemployment rose for the 6th straight month, in Spain there were reports of further protest in Madrid as the government introduced further budget cuts and growth measures to try and get that economy going and in the UK the economy grew at an annualized pace of -0.4%, a decline which was less than expected. On this report GBP.USD rose to trade at 1.6220 but it has since given back a little of the strength.

The Canadian Dollar pulled back a bit of strength last night (as did all commodity currencies) but continues to trade in very tight overnight ranges. This morning we have a heavy US economic Calendar led by the US GDP 2nd Q report. The financial markets are expecting a growth rate of 1.7% so anything significantly less than that will hit the equity markets hard and drive USD.CAD higher. Ahead of that report it does look with equity futures pointing to a higher opening that USD.CAD wants to drop a bit further, if you do need to buy some USD today you might want to consider doing it before 08:30, in my mind is hard to imagine a US GDP report that will blow away market expectations so a big drop in USD.CAD I think would be unrealistic at this point  but we shall see. IF the number comes in as expected then I think the Loonie trading range will once again be muted

Have a great day
Mike


GFX Morning Currency Rates
Thursday September 27, 2012
Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 0.9831 0.9809
CAD/USD 1.0172 1.0195
EUR/USD 1.2862 1.2862
EUR/CAD 1.2647 1.2618
STG/CAD 1.5927 1.5884
AUD/CAD 1.0214 1.0134
CAD/JPY 78.96 79.14
CAD/CHF 0.9551 0.9574
CAD/HKD 7.8628 7.8819
CAD/CNY 6.4025 6.3029
CAD/MXN 13.0679 13.1473
Commodities
Gold $1,757 $1,766
OIL $90.89 $90.69
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N 8.50% 9.62%
1 Week 6.80% 7.07%
1 Month 6.60% 6.57%

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