Monday 10 September 2012

GFX Morning FX Commentary September 10th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s Expected range for the Canadian Dollar against US Dollar is .9750-.9850

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2475-1.2575

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5600-1.5700

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as  equity markets are weaker and the Euro is pulling back from its overnight high of 1.2800 against the US Dollar. Last night the Chinese economy reported weaker than expected exports and lower industrial production, this morning the Greek coalition Government could not agree on the next round of budget cuts to keep the loans coming and finally on Wednesday we get the German High Court ruling on whether the German Government is allowed to lend funds to the ESF/EU rescue funds. I think currency traders saw all of this negativity and stopped the run the Euro had been enjoying.

Friday's weaker than expected jobs US jobs number should give the US Federal Reserve room for another round of Quantative easing on Thursday which should be positive for equity markets and negative for the US Dollar. I think the Fed would prefer to wait another month but with the US Presidential election in early November I think this is the last chance until after the election to jumpstart the economy.

The Canadian dollar continues to hold onto its strength and now looks set to test the .9750 level, given that most commodity markets are lower and the US Dollar is a bit stronger this morning against the Euro, the Loonie is doing remarkably well. With no major North American news due out today I would not expect a big trading range for the Loonie today but with equity market pointing lower we should see USD.CAD trade back towards .9800 to start the day.
 

Have a great day
Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Monday Spetember 10, 2012
Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 0.9765 0.9812
CAD/USD 1.0241 1.0188
EUR/USD 1.2784 1.2685
EUR/CAD 1.2485 1.2446
STG/CAD 1.5621 1.5636
AUD/CAD 1.0106 1.0144
CAD/JPY 80.14 80.45
CAD/CHF 0.9676 0.9751
CAD/HKD 7.92 7.8817
CAD/CNY 6.4887 6.462
CAD/MXN 13.2813 13.2327
Commodities
Gold $1,735 $1,697
OIL $96.39 $95.72
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N 7.05% 5.67%
1 Week 6.89% 6.65%
1 Month 6.43% 6.21%

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