GFX Morning FX Commentary Sept 18th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is  .9725-.9800

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2720-1.2820

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5835-1.5935

The US Dollar is stronger this morning as the Euro has traded weaker throughout the night, in Germany a survey showed that investors are still very negative on the Euro crisis and there are reports that Spain will delay in asking for a full bail-out which will once again drive their borrowing costs higher.

The Canadian Dollar gave back some strength against the stronger US Dollar last night as USD.CAD moved back up to test .9750. The Loonie is once again getting dragged along by the larger currency pairs so it certainly looks like the run the Loonie had for the past week or so has died out and it will now go back to its back and forth trading pattern. I still think there is room for the Loonie to go on another run but for now we should see USD.CAD trade between .9700 and .9800. IF we do get above .9800 I think US Dollar sellers need to look at that level and try and take advantage of it, if the Euro crisis get “solved” and The US dollar continues to trade weaker because of the Quantative Easing then it is not unrealistic to see USD.CAD trading at .9600/.9500 in the coming weeks.

With the lack of economic activity today (only secondary data out of the US) and equity markets pointing lower I would expect that USD .CAD will continue to move a bit higher in an orderly manner towards .9800.

I will be out of the office for the next couple of days, if you need anything just ring the general number and ask for Mike Hawie or Richard Earl.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Tuesday September 18, 2012
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.9754			0.9715
CAD/USD		1.0252			1.0293
EUR/USD		1.306			1.3116
EUR/CAD		1.274			1.2745
STG/CAD		1.5853			1.5777
AUD/CAD		1.0138			1.0203
CAD/JPY		80.54			80.64
CAD/CHF		0.9502			0.9541
CAD/HKD		7.923			7.9564
CAD/CNY		6.4735			6.5046
CAD/MXN		13.1592			13.1299
Commodities
Gold		$1,760			$1,773
OIL		$96.25			$98.86
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		10.25%			10.99%
1 Week		7.87%			7.40%
1 Month		6.95%			6.54%