GFX Morning FX Commentary Nov 4th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0375-1.0450

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4030-1.4100

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6600-1.6675

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as once again positive news out of the UK pushed the pound higher. This morning it was the release of factory data that came in better than expected which helped push GBP.USD higher from its Friday close, the Euro was able to pull back some of its losses from last week but it is not nearly as strong against the US Dollar as the Pound is .

This week will be an important week for European Currencies as we have both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England reporting on interest rates. In Brussels the ECB is expected to cut interest rates to help stimulate a slowing economy while in London the Bank of England is expected to raise it guidance on when interest rates will move higher. Previously they announced that rates would move higher when the unemployment rate hit 7%, this was originally forecast for late 2016, with the growth in the economy they may bring this forward.

The Canadian Dollar is marginally stronger from Friday's close in quiet trading markets, the Loonie continues to pull back some of its losses against the Euro and Sterling as it is performing better against those currencies. It may be time for Euro buyers to look at forward contracts at current levels to protect themselves against a move back up towards the 1.4400/1.4500 levels.

Up today we get the release of US Factory orders for both August and September(delayed due to the government shutdown) but unless we get a big surprise USD.CAD should be contained to a tight trading range near the 1.0400 level.

Have a great week

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.04			1.042
CAD/USD		0.9615			0.9597
EUR/USD		1.3505			1.352
EUR/CAD		1.4046			1.4089
STG/CAD		1.6605			1.669
AUD/CAD		0.9887			0.987
CAD/JPY		94.84			94.29
CAD/CHF		0.8767			0.8735
CAD/HKD		7.4502			7.4348
CAD/CNY		5.8606			5.8503
CAD/MXN		12.5341			12.5622
Commodities
Gold		$1,317.00			$1,315.90
OIL		$94.52			$96.36
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.8			80.33
OPEN		80.68			80.59
US 10YR YIELD		2.61%			2.57%