GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar 1.0550-1.0625

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4360-1.4430

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.7220-1.7300

The US Dollar is marginally weaker ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday weekend. In Germany a strong business confidence report along with the government reaching a deal on public sector wage hikes (without a tax increase) helped to push the Euro higher against the US. In the UK a strong growth report helped push the Pound to an 10 month high against the Greenback, overall a great report for the UK but what would worry me going forward is the big drop in exports that the UK economy suffered. The rise in growth was built around domestic demand and a big jump in the housing market, clearly the stronger Pound is having a negative effect on overall economy as exports were off by more than 2%, not a great formula for future success.

The Canadian Dollar continues to settle in to its new trading range above 1.0500 but after a quiet overnight session the Loonie is being dragged weaker against the US Dollar this morning in response to its weakness against the Euro and Sterling. EURO.CAD has moved back to 1.4400 and GBP.CAD is at 1.7250 so great weakness for the Loonie against those currencies and that in turn  is driving USD.CAD towards the high end of our range and pushing It up against the 1.0600 level that we saw earlier this year. If we see the Euro and Sterling stabilize this morning the USD.CAD should pull back towards 1.0550 and remain their over the next few days if the Loonie continues to weaken against those currencies USD.CAD will be dragged above 1.0600.

Up today we get a slew of US data including Retails Sales for October and the release of the minutes of the last Federal Reserve Policy meeting so we may see some enhanced volatility this morning but then the market will slow down as the US closes up for tomorrow’s holiday. Just a quick reminder that with the US holiday tomorrow the US Dollar wire payment system will be closed so if you have an immediate need to send a US Dollar wire you will need to do it today.

Have a great day and to all our American readers our wishes for a very happy and safe Thanksgiving holiday.

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0543			1.0533
CAD/USD		0.9489			0.9494
EUR/USD		1.3545			1.3543
EUR/CAD		1.4337			1.4266
STG/CAD		1.7205			1.7036
AUD/CAD		0.9611			0.96
CAD/JPY		96.52			96.24
CAD/CHF		0.8579			0.863
CAD/HKD		7.3325			7.3539
CAD/CNY		5.7743			5.7825
CAD/MXN		12.4489			12.4435
Commodities
Gold		$1,250.00			$1,251.00
OIL		$93.27			$94.34
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.64			80.96
OPEN		80.55			80.77
US 10YR YIELD		2.72%			2.72%