Wednesday 13 August 2014

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0900-1.0950

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4570-1.4630

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is  1.8250-1.8350  

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as the Euro-Zone GDP report tomorrow is expected to show a slowing economy alongside a declining inflation rate, not a situation that will support a strengthening Euro. I would think that the EU will be forced to introduce a massive stimulus package at some point. Sterling is also weaker this morning as data out of the UK showed wages were not growing fast enough to support a growing economy, higher interest in the UK are probably not going to happen as early as some had forecast.

The Canadian Dollar did not extend a run after Stats Canada voided last Friday's Employment due to technical errors. The new report comes out this Friday and the question will be, is it going to be better or worse than the 200 new jobs reported on Friday. My guess (and it is only just that a guess) would be that they erred to the downside and the number will be stronger, if I am right then Canada could have a small rally, if I am wrong and it is a worse number than USD.CAD will jump higher.

Up today we have the US Retail Sales Report for July and we are expecting a 0.3% growth which would be in line with recent growth. I would not expect this number to have a dramatic effect on the currency market so look for USD.CAD to range trade ahead of Friday’s revised Canadian Employment report.

Have a great day
Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates

Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 1.0924 1.0944
CAD/USD 0.9154 0.9137
EUR/USD 1.3352 1.3338
EUR/CAD 1.4588 1.4598
STG/CAD 1.8264 1.837
AUD/CAD 1.0152 1.0135
CAD/JPY 93.76 93.46
CAD/CHF 0.8315 0.8314
CAD/HKD 7.0735 7.0608
CAD/CNY 6.1542 5.6243
CAD/MXN 12.038 12.0883
Commodities
Gold $1,309.00 $1,312.00
OIL $97.38 $97.25
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE 81.51 81.45
OPEN 81.63 81.66
US 10YR YIELD 2.46% 2.43%

 

 

 

 

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