GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0960-1.1030

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4635-1.4700

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8460-18520

The US Dollar is stronger this morning as equity markets around the world are getting hit hard as the expectation grows that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent. EURO.USD has dropped to trade at 1.3340 (lowest level in 9 months) on the fears of the invasion but also on the fact that GDP numbers out of Italy have shown that country has recorded negative growth and Factory Orders in Germany dropped unexpectedly, not a very pretty picture at the moment for Europe and I would not be surprised if we see EURO.USD drop to trade at 1.3000 at some point soon.  Given that the Canadian Dollar is also so weak I don’t see a big rally for EURO.CAD at the moment at best I see the rate holding in at current levels, at least until the Loonie settled down against the US. In addition to investors putting money into US treasuries for safe keeping the US dollar is benefitting from comments from Federal Reserve official statements that policy makers are becoming more “hawkish”(favour higher interest rates),look for the US dollar to continue to extend its gains.

The Canadian Dollar is marginally weaker against the US Dollar this morning but for the most part it was on the sidelines overnight, the trend for a higher USD.CAD remains intact. With the drop in the Euro and Sterling both EURO.CAD and GBP.CAD should remain at current levels for a while, I don’t see the Loonie benefitting all that much from the weak Euro and Sterling at the moment.

Up today we get trade data out of the US and Canada but I think the currency markets will focus on what equities are doing. Right now the Dow Jones is showing that it will open down 50 points, if we have another day down over 100 points then I think you will see the US Dollar benefit and USD.CAD will push higher. US Dollar buyers really need to be conservative at the moment and take advantage of current rates.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0976			1.0941
CAD/USD		0.911			0.914
EUR/USD		1.3341			1.3388
EUR/CAD		1.4646			1.4651
STG/CAD		1.8471			1.8458
AUD/CAD		1.0214			1.02
CAD/JPY		93.23			93.84
CAD/CHF		0.8296			0.8307
CAD/HKD		7.0408			7.0609
CAD/CNY		5.6141			5.6388
CAD/MXN		12.1248			12.0535
Commodities
Gold		$1,289			$1,291
OIL		$97.55			$98.48
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		81.6			81.45
OPEN		81.73			81.55
US 10YR YIELD		2.45%			2.49%