GFX Morning FX Commentary October 3rd, 2013

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0300-1.0370

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4030-1.4100

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6720-1.6790

The US Dollar hit an 8 month low against the Euro overnight as the Euro was boosted by a better than expected services output report and the growing concern by investors over the US partial Government shutdown and the impending debt ceiling limit. President Obama was pitching dire consequences if the ceiling is not increased, I honestly don’t think this will happen I believe the US Congress will increase debt ceiling at the last hour but if it does happen it will make the  2008 crisis look like  a nice walk in the park.

Just a quick note on Sterling, Bloomberg reports that the Pound has risen by 7% since early April to hit a high of 1.6230 against the US Dollar and to 1.6780 against the Canadian Dollar. That is a massive move for an economy that is still struggling along, I would not be surprised if we start to see some movement lower for the Pound, currencies when they are on a roll tend to overshoot their highs so I won’t be surprised if we start to see a good pullback for the Pound.

The Canadian Dollar is unchanged against the Greenback but much weaker against the Euro and Sterling as the recent strength in those currencies is hurting the Loonie and making them more expensive to buy. USD.CAD continues to grind along as it slowly moves higher

Up today we are expecting the release of the jobless claims in the US, I am not entirely sure which US statistics are on schedule to be released and which will be postponed so I will pay a little bit more attention to secondary data as it may influence the market a little bit more.  Barring any surprises I still favour a slow rise for USD.CAD until we get close to mid-October and a resolution to the current American crisis.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0335			1.0347
CAD/USD		0.9675			0.9664
EUR/USD		1.36			1.352
EUR/CAD		1.4058			1.3993
STG/CAD		1.6765			1.678
AUD/CAD		0.9658			0.9679
CAD/JPY		94.51			94.11
CAD/CHF		0.8721			0.874
CAD/HKD		7.4477			7.4881
CAD/CNY		5.9194			5.9131
CAD/MXN		12.7419			12.7916
Commodities
Gold		$1,305.00			$1,296.00
OIL		$103.89			$101.86
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.99			80.27
OPEN		79.96			80.25
US 10YR YIELD		2.64%			2.64%