Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9920-1.0020
Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3190-1.3230
Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5800-1.5900
The US Dollar has had a busy night against the Euro and at the moment is back to where we closed it in Toronto yesterday, it did trade as high 1.3315 on the expectation that the Greek coalition parties would agree a set of austerity measures that would satisfy the IMF and EU officials and allow the money to flow to them. This morning it was announced that they in fact have not reached a consensus on a new austerity program and this is after they put out much rhetoric yesterday saying that they were close to a deal., Euro quickly dropped from its highs and traded down to the 1.3250 level. I was of the understanding that the EU finance ministers were meeting today in Brussels and wanted a deal done ahead of that meeting., the markets will now await the reaction of the EU and IMF and if they come out and say that it is over and no more money will flow to Greece look for the Euro to get hit hard and EURO.USD could easily trade below the 1.3000 level.
Also making headlines today were the interest rate announcements from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. The BOE has announced that interest rates will remain at 0.5% and they as expected increased their quantitative easing program by 50 Billion Pounds, the minutes from this meeting get released but they are not expected to have any good news on the economy, The ECB will release later this morning and they are not expected to change their 1.0% interest rate level, at 8:30 this morning ECB Governor Mario Draghi will give his press conference and he will have to answer lots of questions on what happens with Greece.
You have heard me say this before, markets do not like uncertainty so volatility could come back with a vengeance today.
The Canadian Dollar was a bit more active overnight but still trading in a tight range and still trading in exact correlation with the Euro, as the Euro started getting stronger USD.CAD fell back and then when the Greek news hit USD.CAD traded back higher, the Loonie is actually very easy to trade right now as you just have to watch what the Euro is doing. If the Greek situation breaks out of control today you should see USD.CAD jump back above par and higher, while this is not certain it may be wise for US Dollar buyers to try and lock in some purchases anywhere below par to protect themselves in case this happens.
If we do see a development in the Greek situation I will send out a currency alert.
Have a great day
Mike
GFX FOREIGN EXCHANGE MORNING UPDATE
Thursday, February-09-12
Market Indicators * For current market prices please contact our currency advisors or visit our
on line site at www.gfxpartners.ca *
Currencies
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7:00am Today's Opening
|
Yesterday's Opening
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USD/CAD
|
0.9956
|
0.995
| |||||
CAD/USD
|
1.0044
|
1.005
| |||||
EUR/USD
|
1.3269
|
1.3272
| |||||
EUR/CAD
|
1.3215
|
1.3207
| |||||
STG/CAD
|
1.5773
|
1.581
| |||||
AUD/CAD
|
1.075
|
1.077
| |||||
CAD/JPY
|
77.42
|
77.35
| |||||
CAD/CHF
|
0.9156
|
0.9167
| |||||
CAD/HKD
|
7.7873
|
7.7916
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CAD/CNY
|
6.3182
|
6.3222
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Commodities
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Gold
|
$1,736
|
$1,749
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OIL
|
$99.38
|
$99.54
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Option Volatility
| |||||||
O/N
|
11.75%
|
12.14%
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1 Week
|
9.05%
|
9.38%
| |||||
1 Month
|
9.25%
|
9.33%
| |||||
MORNING COMMENTARY
FX MARKET ON HOLD AHEAD OF ECB AND GREECE
The Euro is off its highs from overnight after breaching the 1.3300 level. The market is still hopeful
Greece will come to a resolution on the debt swap. The Bank of England has left their key interest rate
unchanged at 0.5% as expected, next to report is the ECB which is currently at 1.0% and are also expected
to hold at current levels. The statement to follow should provide some insight if more stimulus is required.
The Canadian dollar once again was confined to narrow ranges in what is amounting to very uneventful trading.
The economic calendar in North America is light so the focus will be on the ECB statement at 8:30am and any
headlines pertaining to Greek resolutions.
Dow futures are pointing down 14 in pre-market trading with commodities slightly firmer.
The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein are provided as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. Some of the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein have been obtained from numerous sources, and, notwithstanding GFX Partners Inc. (GFX) makes every effort to ensure that the contents thereof have been compiled or derived from sources believed to be reliable and to contain information and opinions which are accurate and complete, GFX has not independently verified and makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof and takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions which may be contained therein. GFX shall not be liable for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein whether relied upon by the recipient or user or any other third party (including, without limitation, any customer of the recipient or user). The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein shall not be considered as investment advice or as a recommendation to enter into any transaction. GFX, its affiliates, and/or their respective shareholders, directors, officers and/or employees may from time to time have long or short positions in any such products (including, without limitation, commodities, securities or other financial instruments).
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