Thursday 16 February 2012

GFX Morning Commentary February 16th, 2012

Good Morning,

For Today's expected Currency Ranges please visit our web site at www.gfxpartners.ca and subscribe to our morning newsletter.

The US Dollar is significantly stronger this morning, the Euro reached a 3 week low against the Greenback this morning as European leaders appear reluctant to provide the 2nd bailout to Greece unless they get more control over how the money will be spent, in addition Moody’s bond rating agency came out this morning and said it is reviewing 17 major financial institutions for a possible downgrade. The equity markets quickly gave up some strength with the US Dollar surging on the back of the loss in equities, EURO.USD fell to trade as low as 1.2975 and GBP.USD fell to trade at 1.5670 so overall a good night for the Greenback, the best in weeks.

As you would expect the Loonie gave back some strength last night and looks set today to make a break back above parity this morning, this type of move reinforces my point that I have been writing about over the past few weeks, US dollar buyers need to lock some of their forward exposure anytime we get near the .9950 level, each time USD.CAD approaches that level it bounces higher and given the current trading range over the past while US Dollar sellers now need to be ready to capitalize on any moves towards 1.0050 and 1.0100 as this has been the limit of any pullback in the past few weeks.

With very little in the way of economic news out until tomorrow (where we get Canadian and US CPI) I look for USD.CAD to punch a little higher to start the day but the markets are still very nervous and will wait on any further developments out of Europe before a breakout on either side is achieved.

Have a great day
Mike

 
Thursday, February-16-12
Market Indicators                   * For current market prices please contact our currency advisors or visit our
                                                  on line site at www.gfxpartners.ca *

Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 1.0034 0.9942
CAD/USD 0.9966 1.0058
EUR/USD 1.3 1.316
EUR/CAD 1.304 1.3088
STG/CAD 1.5724 1.5629
AUD/CAD 1.0705 1.0702
CAD/JPY 78.49 78.96
CAD/CHF 0.9248 0.922
CAD/HKD 7.7278 7.7958
CAD/CNY 6.277 6.3332
Commodities
Gold $1,718 $1,729
OIL $101.23 $101.84
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N 12.61% 11.25%
1 Week 9.75% 8.67%
1 Month 9.76% 9.14%
CBOE Volatilty
Index (VIX) 21.14% 19.54%

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