Wednesday 4 June 2014

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0880-1.0950

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4860-1.4920

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8300-1.8360

The US Dollar is stronger this morning as it is benefiting from a jump over the past couple of days in ‎US 10-year bond yields. On the bond markets the 10-year yield has jumped from 2.46% to trade at 2.59% yesterday, this jump is attracting offshore money into the United States and pushing the Dollar higher.

‎In Europe the Euro-Zone 1st Quarter GDP came in with a growth rate of 0.2% dropping from the 0.3% in the last quarter of 2013. It is very clear right now that the ECB will need to really provide massive amounts of stimulus to the EU economy, the big danger is the ECB will disappoint tomorrow and not do enough in the eyes of global investors. In my view Europe is in dire straits and it is all now up to the ECB to sort it out.

The Canadian Dollar which had a strong month in May now is bearing the brunt of the recent US Dollar strength as it continues to get a little weaker every night against the Greenback. I am always amazed that when the Loonie weakens it is always drops quickly but when it garners any strength it is usually a slow grind.

Trading today of course will be dominated by the Bank of Canada interest rate announcement, we are not expecting any changes to the interest rate policy but I won't be surprised if there are some cautionary words in the statement about a slowing economy. I will send out a currency alert shortly after the announcement but I favour a weaker Canadian Dollar after the announcement.


Have a great day
Mike





GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 1.0928 1.0913
CAD/USD 0.915 0.9163
EUR/USD 1.3611 1.3607
EUR/CAD 1.4874 1.4832
STG/CAD 1.8281 1.8289
AUD/CAD 1.013 1.0114
CAD/JPY 93.95 93.82
CAD/CHF 0.8204 0.8224
CAD/HKD 7.0744 7.1237
CAD/CNY 5.7165 5.7295
CAD/MXN 11.8595 11.8653
Commodities
Gold $1,245.00 $1,246.00
OIL $103.33 $102.29
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE 80.55 80.65
OPEN 80.62 80.6
US 10YR YIELD 2.58% 2.56%
 

 

 
 

 

 

No comments:

Post a Comment