GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1210-1.1270

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3950-1.4000

Today’ s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.7640-1.7700

The US Dollar is mixed this morning in a quiet overnight trading session, the Greenback is marginally weaker against the Euro and Sterling and marginally stronger against the Yen and Commodity currencies. In Europe, the Euro is stronger to start the week as the common currency received a boost from a report that showed business confidence rose for the first time in seven months across the region, in Japan the Yen continues to trade weaker on the expectation of further Government stimulus after the election. In the UK the Pound traded weaker for most of the morning session before rebounding on expectation of poor economic data this week which will underpin the BOE’s low interest rate policy.

The Loonie is marginally weaker this morning as it continues to hold onto the strength it picked up from the stronger than expected inflation report on Friday. IF the recent trading pattern holds then I would expected USD.CAD to move back above 1.1300 at some point but I am getting a sense that the Loonie might be able to extend this push and USD.CAD might have some room to run lower. I have not said this much lately but US Dollar sellers might want to think about putting some more forward contracts on to protect themselves in case the Loonie does go on a bit or a run.

The US markets will be closed this Thursday but of interesting note is that OPEC has a meeting planned to discuss the supply of oil and if they announce a drastic cut in the supply we should see the oil price jump which could give the Loonie a big push stronger, with the market being fairly illiquid that day we could see some enhanced volatility.

With the market closed on Thursday the US is cramming in their last releases of the month on Tuesday and Wednesday highlighted by the US GDP report tomorrow, Canada has a light week with just our GDP report on Friday being the only report of major significance. The fact that the US market will still be at half-staff on Friday could bring some enhanced volatility for the Loonie if we get a surprising number. With the US Holiday on Thursday remember that the Fed wire system will be closed so make sure you get your orders in early this week if you need to send a wire.

Have a great week

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.124			1.1277
CAD/USD		0.8897			0.8868
EUR/USD		1.2408			1.2432
EUR/CAD		1.3949			1.4023
STG/CAD		1.7617			1.767
AUD/CAD		0.9708			0.9818
CAD/JPY		105.17			104.32
CAD/CHF		0.8619			0.8571
CAD/HKD		6.8784			6.8564
CAD/CNY		5.4624			5.4298
CAD/MXN		12.1592			12.0888
Commodities
Gold		$1,200.00			$1,195.00
OIL		$76.68			$77.23
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		88.3			87.62
OPEN		88.23			88.17
US 10YR YIELD		2.33%			2.35%