GFX Morning Commentray

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.2425-1.2525

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3660-1.3760

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8925-1.9025

This will be the last “From the Desk of GFX”, as of Monday it will be called “From the Desk of AFEX”, life is made of many adventures and we at GFX are on to the next one. It has been a great privilege to write this commentary over the last 10 years and I want to thank all readers for all their input, I hope that you found some value in it and it helped you to make some informed choices when doing your FX transactions. I am greatly looking forward to my time at AFEX, we will be able to accomplish great things.

The US Dollar is stronger again this morning as the currency market digests the ECB stimulus plan and gets ready for today’s US Employment report (the Canadian report is next Friday). Yesterday saw the ECB announce their stimulus program which will consist of some 60 Billion Euro’s worth of bond purchases as they want to see inflation rise back up to the 2.0% level, I have to believe that this program will at least last two years and possibly longer, Europe is such a mess at the  moment. EURO.USD is down trading at 1.0940 another 11-year low for the currency pair, when the Euro was first introduced on January 1^st 1999 the Euro traded at a discount to the Greenback, I have to think we will see those levels again.

Nothing new to report on the Loonie, once again it is range trading and anytime we see the Loonie garner some strength against the Greenback it seems to give it right back. With the weakness in the Euro and Sterling at the moment, the Loonie continues to make gains against those currencies. Euro buyers should be looking at forward contracts at these levels, if the Loonie does again weaken against the US Dollar we will see it lose ground to Europe as well.

As mentioned, trading today will be dominated by the US Employment report for February, we are expecting 245k new jobs to have been created ( down a little from last month of 257k). Given the latest US economic data I think the number has the potential to surprise to the topside so we could see a jump in USD.CAD, regardless of what the number is I think we will see some enhance volatility. We also have Trade data due out for both Canada and the US so it should be a busy morning.

Just  reminder that we will be closing the office today at 3:00 pm to facilitate our move to the AFEX offices.

 

Have a great weekend, warm weather is on the horizon!!

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening			4pm close Thursday
USD/CAD		1.2466			1.2416			1.2506
CAD/USD		0.8022			0.8025			0.7996
EUR/USD		1.095			1.1043			1.1025
EUR/CAD		1.3654			1.3714			1.3793
STG/CAD		1.8914			1.8928			1.9049
AUD/CAD		0.9735			0.9695			0.9719
CAD/JPY		96.26			96.75			96.04
CAD/CHF		0.7835			0.78			0.7787
CAD/HKD		6.1985			6.2243			6.1796
CAD/CNY		5.0221			5.0452			5.0089
CAD/MXN		12.2027			12.1684			12.1734
Commodities
Gold		$1,195			$1,200			$1,200
OIL		$50.83			$52.11			$52.11
US DOLLAR INDEX
OPEN		96.72			96.2			96.38
US 10YR YIELD		2.12%			2.13%			2.10%