Wednesday 8 August 2012

GFX Morning FX Commentary, August 8th, 2102

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9930-1.0030

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2300-1.2400

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5580-1.5680

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as poor economic news out of Germany has halted the run up of the Euro. The German Industrial Production report showed a decline of 1.9% after the market was expecting a decline of only 0.8%, clearly economic activity in Germany is slowing and if Germany is the economic engine of the EU, the rest of the Union will be in worse shape.

The Canadian Dollar continues to hold onto its recent strength trading last night in a very narrow range, the currency is still being dominated by events outside of Canada and as long as the rest of the world remains quiet USD.CAD will trade in very narrow ranges.

I read an interesting article last night, with the S&P stock index near its highs the question remains how long can equities stay strong given the signs of a slowdown in global growth. If stocks are truly set to fall back then as we have seen in the past USD.CAD will jump higher. if you are a US Dollar buyer and subscribe to the theory that stocks will decline in the coming months then you should really be taking advantage of current levels and start buying a lot of forward contracts.

Up for today there is nothing in the way of economic releases so look for the Loonie to trade in a tight range and follow the equity markets, right now New York and Toronto are pointing lower so I would not be surprised if USD.CAD moves a bit higher to start the day.



Have a great day
Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Wednesday August 08, 2012
Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 0.9967 0.998
CAD/USD 1.0033 1.002
EUR/USD 1.2355 1.2412
EUR/CAD 1.2316 1.2388
STG/CAD 1.5896 1.5617
AUD/CAD 1.0527 1.0562
CAD/JPY 78.53 78.48
CAD/CHF 0.9746 0.9693
CAD/HKD 7.7358 7.7613
CAD/CNY 6.3826 6.3772
CAD/MXN 13.2898 13.1787
Commodities
Gold $1,609 $1,618
OIL $93.08 $92.44
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N 10.52% 11.45%
1 Week 7.83% 7.96%
1 Month 7.71% 7.82%

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