Friday 2 November 2012

GFX FX Morning Commentary Nov 2nd, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9950-1.0050

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2820-1.2920

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6020-1.6120

The US Dollar is marginally higher this morning as positions are squared up ahead of the all-important US jobs report this morning, EURO.USD again dropped last night and is trading below 1.2900 as the US dollar is at its strongest level in days. The currency markets are expecting another 125,000 new jobs to have been created in the US (following the increase of 114,000 last month) with a slight jump in the unemployment rate to 7.9%. A big increase in the employment picture should be equity positive and would push the US Dollar lower today and if the number disappoints then I think you will see nervous equity markets give up some strength and the US Dollar will jump.
 
The Canadian Dollar had a very quiet night and is basically at the same point when we went home last night, it is holding onto the strength is grabbed yesterday. In addition to the US number which will dominate the currency markets we have the Canadian employment report being released today and we are expecting 10k jobs to have been created (52.1K created last month) and an unemployment rate of 7.4% (unchanged).  When you tie this number in with the poor GDP report from earlier in the week we can easily see the Canadian economy is slowing and not creating many jobs, a poor number may give USD.CAD the necessary push above parity this morning, a strong report should push us back below .9950.


Have a great weekend
Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 0.9974 1.0002
CAD/USD 1.0026 0.9998
EUR/USD 1.2878 1.2943
EUR/CAD 1.2848 1.2948
STG/CAD 1.6059 1.6174
AUD/CAD 1.0347 1.0354
CAD/JPY 80.46 79.95
CAD/CHF 0.9388 0.932
CAD/HKD 7.7476 7.7247
CAD/CNY 6.2525 6.2416
CAD/MXN 13.0562 13.0916
Commodities
Gold $1,709 $1,723
OIL $86.39 $86.42
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N 7.29% 10.02%
1 Week 7.45% 7.54%
1 Month 6.49% 6.59%

 

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