Thursday 24 January 2013

GFX Morning FX Commentary January 24th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9960-1.0040

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3300-1.3380

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5810-1.5900

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as EURO.USD jumped a little bit higher on EU growth reports that showed contraction in the EU economy is starting to slow. The US Dollar did jump against the Yen as the Deputy Economy Minister called for USD.JPY to reach 100, that would be a huge move and really weaken off the Yen, the verbal diarrhea continues.

The Canadian Dollar was front and centre on world currency markets yesterday afternoon as the Bank of Canada report that future interest rate hikes were being pushed back caused the Loonie to weaken off. Last night that trend continued and it looks like USD.CAD will try and make a clean break above parity. If you believe that the fundamentals of the Canadian economy are still relatively strong to the rest of the world and you need to sell some USD then you should expect that USD.CAD will fall back lower at some point and be looking at riding this wave by placing some forward contracts on. If you are a US Dollar buyer hopefully you put some forward contracts on in the .9800 to .9850 area when we were down there, if not and you need to buy some USD then look for any short-term pullback towards .9950 as a good buying opportunity.

We have some secondary US data today and we have noticed that Canadian Dollar volatility rates are starting to increase so we could start to see increased trading ranges, look for the pressure on the Loonie to continue today with limited pullbacks. If we cannot break above parity today then we may see a new top being set and then USD.CAD set up for a move lower.

Have a great day
Mike


GFX Morning Currency Rates
 
Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 1.0006 0.9916
CAD/USD 0.9994 1.0094
EUR/USD 1.3325 1.3337
EUR/CAD 1.3335 1.3227
STG/CAD 1.584 1.5718
AUD/CAD 1.0504 1.0467
CAD/JPY 89.27 89.1
CAD/CHF 0.9268 0.9358
CAD/HKD 7.7276 7.7973
CAD/CNY 6.2142 6.2685
CAD/MXN 12.6894 12.767
Commodities
Gold $1,677 $1,692
OIL $95.44 $96.71
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N 7.50% 7.60%
1 Week 6.15% 6.12%
1 Month 5.90% 5.85%
 

 

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