GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.2480-1.2550

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4220-1.4290

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.9320-1.9390

The US Dollar is firmer this morning as financial markets react to the minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting, I was a bit premature yesterday when I said we were expecting an interest rate decision from the Fed, in fact the announcement was just the minutes from the last meeting, the next policy meeting of the Fed will be in mid-March. The Greenback jumped higher this morning despite the minutes indicating some of the voting members are now starting to favour a delay in the first interest rate hike we have seen in years. There are definite signs that the US expansion is starting to slow and inflation is starting to drop, it will be very interesting to see what the March announcement will hold.

Euro is weaker this morning as Germany stated that they will not make any concessions to Greece and that they want them to keep all their austerity measures in place. In the UK the Pound is again higher as more positive data continues to come out of the UK economy.

Once again USD.CAD looked like it wanted to make a firm break below the 1.2400 level and once again the rate bounced higher, the price of oil has dropped about two dollars a barrel this morning as the volatility continues to put pressure on the commodity currencies. I would think now that the rate will test 1.2500 level at some point, it may be that we are stuck in this 1.2400-1.2500 range for a little while yet.

Up today we get the US leading indicators for January and the Philadelphia Fed Index for February, markets will be looking to see if the US data continues to soften.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening			4pm close Tuesday
USD/CAD		1.2477			1.2443			1.2415
CAD/USD		0.8014			0.8036			0.8036
EUR/USD		1.1393			1.1363			1.1403
EUR/CAD		1.4218			1.4141			1.4159
STG/CAD		1.9286			1.9201			1.9179
AUD/CAD		0.9721			0.9702			0.9712
CAD/JPY		95.34			95.83			95.51
CAD/CHF		0.7586			0.7549			0.7582
CAD/HKD		6.1938						6.2256
CAD/CNY		5.0131			5.0252			5.0345
CAD/MXN		11.9662			12.0434			11.9958
Commodities
Gold		$1,217			$1,205			$1,210
OIL		$50.25			$52.70			$51.70
US DOLLAR INDEX
OPEN		94.21			94.33			94.19
US 10YR YIELD		2.07%			2.15%			2.08%