Friday 20 April 2012

GFX Morning FX Commentary, April 20th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9875-.9975

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3170-1.3270

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against is 1.5870-1.5870

The US Dollar is slightly weaker this morning as the Euro received a boost from a better than expected German Business Confidence report, the number reached a nine month high which caught everyone by surprise. EURO.USD which traded as low as 1.3125 before the report traded as high as 1.3205 just after its release, another good night for the Euro.

The Euro should also get a boost as the G-20 meets this weekend in Washington and it is expected that they will push for more of a safety net around the financial crisis in Europe, I still think the G-20 countries feel there is more Europe can be doing to solve this crisis.

Nothing of interest  for the Canadian Dollar last night, another small trading range with the Loonie pulling back below .9950 on the weaker US Dollar. The Loonie also lost a little ground against the Euro and Sterling as both those currencies pair are higher but it does stay within ranges.

Up today we get the release of the Canadian CPI report and given the Bank of Canada’s comments this week this number I think takes on added significance. If we get a report that shows inflation is rising it will add fuel to the  BOC’s comments this week on higher interest rates and USD.CAD should move back below .9900. If the report shows inflation is subdued then you may see USD.CAD move back above the .9950 level. As we move further into 2012 I think Canadian dollar trading will become more concerned with factors that influence the Bank of Canada on interest rates and will continue this way until they finally come out with their plan for  interest rate hikes.

I will be out of the office this afternoon  and the rest of the next week as Mrs. Smith and I and 16 of our favourite Smith relatives from around North America are heading down to the Dominican Republic to reconnect for a week of R&R. In my absence Rich will be publishing the commentary and if you need anything just drop a note to Randy Davis or Mike Hawie.


Have a great weekend
Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Thursday, April 19 2012
Currencies
7:00am Today's Opening
Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD
0.9917
0.9895
CAD/USD
1.0084
1.0106
EUR/USD
1.3193
1.3114
EUR/CAD
1.3085
1.2979
STG/CAD
1.598
1.5865
AUD/CAD
1.026
1.0254
CAD/JPY
82.36
82.51
CAD/CHF
0.9178
0.9255
CAD/HKD
7.8256
7.8404
CAD/CNY
6.3594
6.3672
CAD/MXN
13.2641
13.3382
Commodities
Gold
$1,645
$1,641
OIL
$103.06
$102.89
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N
7.61%
11.49%
1 Week
9.24%
8.78%
1 Month
8.68%
8.47%




















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