Monday 16 July 2012

GFX Morning FX Commentary July 16th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0125-1.0200

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2340-1.2450

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5740-1.5850

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as the Euro has dropped off on a declining consumer confidence report in Germany and a statement from the German Supreme Court on the legality of Germany contributing to the EU Emergency bail-out fund, the German high court announced that they will not rule on the fund until September so this will keep Euro markers on edge.

The Canadian Dollar is virtually unchanged form our close on Friday,  USD.CAD continues to trade within the 1.0100-1.0200 and looks like it will stay in that range for a while yet. Up today we do have the release of some key data out of the US with the June Retail Sales report and Empire State manufacturing report for July. We are expecting an increase of 0.2% in Retail Sales spurred on by an increase in auto spending, a strong number here will be positive for equities and should push USD.CAD lower.

Once the Retail Sales number is out of the way the Canadian market will get setup for the Bank of Canada interest rate announcement tomorrow and their quarterly monetary Policy report on Wednesday. There is no belief in the market that the Bank will raise interest rates tomorrow but the market will be looking for guidance on when the present low-rate environment will come to an end, we could be in for a volatile week.


Have a great week
Mike


GFX Morning Currency Rates
Monday July 16th, 2012
Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 1.0150 1.0157
CAD/USD 0.9852 0.9845
EUR/USD 1.2184 1.2204
EUR/CAD 1.2368 1.2395
STG/CAD 1.5766 1.5684
AUD/CAD 1.0367 1.0343
CAD/JPY 77.8000 77.9700
CAD/CHF 0.9704 0.9683
CAD/HKD 7.6371 6.2871
CAD/CNY 6.2837 7.6351
CAD/MXN 13.1012 13.1847
Commodities
Gold $1,349.50 1,583.2500
OIL $86.72 $86.88
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N 10.75% 7.89%
1 Week 7.65% 8.46%
1 Month 7.50% 8.08%

Today's Economic Calendar

USA
Empire State Manufacturing Report for July (08:30)
Retail Sales for June (08:30)
Business Inventories for May (10:00)

CANADA
International Securites Transactions for May (08:30)
New Motor Vehicle Sales for April (08:30)

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