GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0040-1.0140

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2370-1.2500

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5780-1.5900

The US Dollar is marginally weaker from where Toronto closed it last night, initially the Euro grew stronger on the expectation that China would be putting more stimulus into the economy to keep growth rates high in that economy, the optimism for the Euro soon faded as the Spanish Bond auction did not go as well as planned resulting in higher yields for Spain. The Euro has bounced off of its overnight lows but still looks vulnerable.

The Canadian Dollar had a good rally as it moved stronger through the night, it is benefiting from higher oil prices and strong equity markets, if we get a close below 1.0100 tonight then I think with the weakness in the US Dollar we could see USD.CAD settle into a new range. The Loonie may now want to take a look at parity but if it is going to get there I think it will take a few days. Given that this is the best level US Dollar buyers have seen for in a long time it may be wise for to pick some Greenbacks at these levels and roll them out on a forward contract, there is still lots of uncertainty in the world which can cause the US Dollar to turn very quickly.

Up today we do have some housing data out of the US which has been very positive lately, in Canada we get the release of the Wholesale Trade report so we may see a little volatility around the release of these reports, barring any surprises and with equity markets set to open higher we should see USD.CAD try to move a bit lower.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Thursday July 19th
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0071			1.0148
CAD/USD
EUR/USD		1.2300			1.2289
EUR/CAD		1.2389			1.2470
STG/CAD		1.5797			1.5867
AUD/CAD		1.0507			1.0441
CAD/JPY		77.9800			77.8400
CAD/CHF		0.9690			0.9628
CAD/HKD		7.6496			7.6496
CAD/CNY		6.2865			6.2866
CAD/MXN		13.0117			12.9866
Commodities
Gold		$1,584.63			$1,595.50
OIL		$90.99			$88.65
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		10.40%			10.75%
1 Week		7.82%			7.65%
1 Month		7.64%			7.50%

Today's Economic Calendar

USA
Existing Home Sales for June (10:00)
Leading Indicators for June (10:00)
Philadelphia Fed Index for July (10:00)

CANADA
Wholesale Trade for May