GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0610-1.0680

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4600-1.4670

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.7460-1.7580

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning in fairly quiet overnight trading markets. The Euro has reached a six-week high against the Euro as the market awaits ECB Governor Draghi’s speech this morning on future ECB policy, the currency market will be looking to see if he is willing to push interest rates into negative territory. The Greenback was also able to extend some gains against the Yen reaching a 5-year high as Chinese Industrial Production came in less than expected.

The Canadian Dollar had a quiet night as it range trades once again above 1.0600. While I was away last week we had the move that I was looking for as the market first tested the 1.0700 level, I was not surprised that it could not break through that level on the first try, USD.CAD has come a long way over the past few weeks and markets never run in a straight line for very long. Until we get the Federal Reserve to announce the tapering of their stimulus program I still favour USD.CAD to move higher but given that we had some strong Canadian data last week and the market is completely short Canadian Dollars at this point I would not be surprised if we do see USD.CAD pull back a bit before a move higher.

Up today we get some secondary trade data out of the US so we should have a fairly quiet day, US Dollar buyers need to be ready to purchase some forward contracts if we see the rate drop below 1.0600.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0638			1.065
CAD/USD					0.939
EUR/USD		1.3741			1.3716
EUR/CAD		1.4619			1.461
STG/CAD		1.7487			1.745
AUD/CAD		0.9706			0.9667
CAD/JPY		96.87			96.7
CAD/CHF		0.8361			0.8366
CAD/HKD		7.2661			7.7333
CAD/CNY		5.70624			5.6978
CAD/MXN		12.0249			12.0708
Commodities
Gold		$1,244.90			$1,227.00
OIL		$98.53			$97.58
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE					80.26
OPEN		80.1			80.23
US 10YR YIELD		2.75%			2.84%