GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0560-1.0640

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4560-1.4630

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.7330-1.7400

The US Dollar is for the most part unchanged, the Euro is right where we left it last night but the Greenback is a bit weaker against Sterling and a bit stronger against the Japanese Yen. In the overnight currency market the event that caught my eye was the announcement from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand that said while they were keeping their benchmark interest rate at 2.5% they stand ready to raise interest rates to keep inflation near 2.0%, this would be the first central bank to consider raising interest rates in an environment where most central banks are still looking at keeping rates low. As you would expect on such a statement the New Zealand Dollar really jumped over night.

The Canadian Dollar continues to make small gains but I do get a sense that the move is starting to run into some resistance, they may be one more move lower and then USD.CAD will get the push back towards 1.0700. I still get a sense that the US and Canadian markets are waiting on the Federal Reserve next week before we get the next big move.

Up today we should have some volatility early on as we get the US Retail Sales number for November, we are expecting an increase of 0.3% after a 0.4% increase the previous month, I think this number contains the Black Friday activity so we may in fact get a very strong number. Once again I will caution US Dollar buyers to be worried about a move back towards 1.0700 before the end of the year and then a move much higher into the first quarter of next year, at some point I think these levels are going to look very attractive going forward.

Have a great day.

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.056			1.0587
CAD/USD		0.9464			0.9445
EUR/USD		1.3787			1.3764
EUR/CAD		1.4563			1.4577
STG/CAD		1.7324			1.735
AUD/CAD		0.9554			0.9649
CAD/JPY		97.2			96.77
CAD/CHF		0.8376			0.8378
CAD/HKD		7.3353			7.3173
CAD/CNY		5.7453			5.7325
CAD/MXN		12.2983			12.1954
Commodities
Gold		$1,238.00			$1,256.00
OIL		$97.82			$98.37
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.87			79.98
OPEN		79.91			79.96
US 10YR YIELD		2.84%			2.80%