GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1375-1.1440

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4200-1.4260

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.7900-1.7960

Forgive me if I am in a bit of a fog this morning but I am a Tiger-Cat fan and that was a tough way to lose a Grey Cup!

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as the currency markets get fully involved in reaction to Thursday’s OPEC meeting. Oil have been very volatile once again overnight as it has traded down to $63.70 before pulling back to trade at $65.50. I read over the weekend how some people are predicting that oil will drop to $30 a barrel which was last seen after the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008, if I see oil anywhere near that level I would be buying loads of oil ETF’s as there is no way it would stay there very long. I think statements like this that are just a case of the so called “experts” looking for publicity over recent events.

The British Pound had a strong rally off its lows from overnight following better than expected inflation data released in the UK this morning, this is the second consecutive month showing a rise which caught the market offside. The European single currency continues to range trade on the 1.2400 level with focus now on the ECB meeting Thursday.

The Canadian Dollar was weaker during the night but as the price of oil recovered the Loonie was able to make back some gains and is basically back where we were at the end of Friday. With all this focus on oil the currency market has really separated into two camps once again, you have the major currencies which are trading on fundamentals and then you have the Commodity currencies (CAD, AUD, NWD, MXN) that are getting quite volatile on any oil movement.

A very busy economic week as we start the last month of the year, up this week we have the Bank of  Canada interest rate policy announcement on Wednesday, Bank of England and European Central Bank announcements on Thursday and on Friday we get both US and Canadian employment data, volatility will be the key all week long.

Have a great week

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1408			1.138
CAD/USD		0.8765			0.8787
EUR/USD		1.2465			1.2473
EUR/CAD		1.4229			1.4197
STG/CAD		1.7932			1.7865
AUD/CAD		0.9679			0.9696
CAD/JPY		103.79			103.87
CAD/CHF		0.8452			0.8461
CAD/HKD		6.7756			6.7909
CAD/CNY		5.3891			5.3974
CAD/MXN		12.2331			12.1472
Commodities
Gold		$1,173.00			$1,182.00
OIL		$65.54			$68.96
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		88.28			87.94
OPEN		88.08			88.06
US 10YR YIELD		2.17%			2.20%