Monday 15 December 2014

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1560-1.1620

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is  1.4400-1.4460

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8160-1.8240

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as it was led higher by Prime Minister Abe’s coalition group winning control of parliament, we will see more stimulus coming out of Japan in the coming weeks. The Euro is a bit lower this morning on speculation that the ECB will start to buyback government bonds, further stimulus in Europe should but a quick stop to any Euro strength quickly.

The price of oil dropped again to a new low trading at $56.25 a barrel before rebounding to $58.18 as North American opens. I saw over the weekend that the Saudi Oil Minister was talking about the price trading outside what fundamentals dictate but not even that verbal intervention could slow the decline. Not that it matters but last night I noticed that gasoline in Oakville dropped below the $1.00 threshold, that is the positive side to all of this. If I was in an industry that depended on the price of gasoline I would definitely start a hedging program to protect myself going out a few months.

The Canadian Dollar was again weaker against the US and other currencies, there looks like there is no stop to the decline, at least until the price of oil stabilizes and we can get some positive news out of Canada.

Up this week we have a big week for data, highlighted by the CPI reports for the US on Wednesday and Canada on Friday. Lots of secondary data out of the US today so look for volatility to remain the key word.

Have a great week
Mike

 

 

 

 
 

 

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