GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s Expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1630-1.1700

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4630-1.4700

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8370-1.8430

The US Dollar is marginally weaker against most major currencies as the markets react to growing concerns out of Russia and to concerns about the Global economy. In Russia the Ruble is down over 50% since the start of the year amid the Western economic sanctions and an economy that is very dependent on oil exports. This morning the Russian Central Bank announced a 10%(to 17%)increase in overnight interest rates in the hopes that it will stem the rapid decline of the Ruble and steady the economy. The rate increase did not help that much as the Ruble fell once again to a new record low against the US Dollar.

Oil continues to be the dominant theme on the world markets as it continues to drop, overnight the Norwegian Krone continued to drop and reached parity with it Nordic neighbour Sweden for the first time since 2000. So far there is no sign that oil is going to steady any time soon, the conspiratist in me would think that the USA will continue to push for a weaker oil price until Russia capitulates on Ukraine but we shall see.

The Canadian Dollar had a another rough afternoon and is not only trading weaker against the US Dollar this morning but also against a whole basket of currencies, the Loonie is not being hit as hard as the Norwegian Krone or Mexican Peso but it is slowly losing value each day and there is no end in sight, this situation will eventually turn but it will take world events to change and give the Loonie some strength. For now US Dollar sellers need to be looking at some forward contracts to take advantage of this windfall and US Dollar buyers need to be ready on any minor short-term pullbacks to gain some extra value.

Trading today will still be dominated by the oil price and its effect on the global economy but we do have some secondary Canadian data but unless it really surprised it will take a backseat to the oil price.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening			4:30pm Yesterday's Closing Rates
USD/CAD	1.1649				1.1582			1.1652
CAD/USD	0.8584				0.8634			0.8582
EUR/USD	1.2538				1.243			1.2432
EUR/CAD	1.4611				1.4398			1.4488
STG/CAD	1.8343				1.8156			1.8218
AUD/CAD	0.9603				0.9531			0.957
CAD/JPY	99.27				102.5			101.8
CAD/CHF	0.8219				0.834			0.8286
CAD/HKD	6.633				6.693			6.6322
CAD/CNY	6.1908				5.3451			5.3114
CAD/MXN	12.735				12.7495			12.6363
Commodities
Gold	$1,202.10				$1,212
OIL	$54.44				$58.18			$55.22
US DOLLAR INDEX
OPEN	87.88				88.75			88.72
US 10YR YIELD	2.06%				2.13%			2.12%