Friday 26 October 2012

GFX Morning FX Commentary October 26th,2012

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar .9930-1.0000

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2825-1.2900

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6030-1.6125

The US Dollar is stronger this morning as recent earnings reports from major US companies have spooked the equity markets and given strength to the US Dollar on the safe haven effect. Yesterday afternoon after the markets closed  it was Apple that missed their earnings target and as a result the Dow Jones is pointing down 100 points on the opening this morning. Also giving some strength to the Greenback and hurting the  Euro was a poor French household sentiment report and the Spanish unemployment report that showed one in four Spaniards are now unemployed, I fail to see how an economy as big as Spain’s can recover from this massive unemployment when it is forced to shut down spending to reign in a massive budget deficit. I am sure it is only a matter of time before Spain asks for the full bailout package from the Troika.

The Canadian Dollar is as you would expect trading weaker with USD.CAD poised to break above .9950 again this morning, once again the Loonie is just following the crowd and USD.CAD is trading on the back of global factors. Today’s trading will be dominated by the release of the US GDP report for 3rd quarter which is expected to show an annualized growth rate of 1.8% up from the previous growth rate in the 2nd quarter of 1.3%. Not a spectacular number but it will continue a long string of positive US economic reports that we have been seeing recently. A stronger than expected number should help the equities pair their losses and push USD.CAD lower and if the number is poorer than expected USD.CAD should jump higher on weaker equity markets.


Have a great weekend
Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Friday October 26, 2012

Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 0.9969 0.9904
CAD/USD 1.0031 1.0096
EUR/USD 1.2893 1.2995
EUR/CAD 1.2854 1.2873
STG/CAD 1.6055 1.5976
AUD/CAD 1.0292 1.0288
CAD/JPY 79.99 80.84
CAD/CHF 0.9403 0.9391
CAD/HKD 7.7514 7.8016
CAD/CNY 6.2656 6.2926
CAD/MXN 13.1383 13.0728
Commodities
Gold $86 $1,715
OIL $86.25
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N 7.03% 9.28%
1 Week 7.70% 7.04%
1 Month 6.97% 7.00%
 

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