Monday 4 March 2013

GFX Mornign FX Commentary March 4th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0250-1.0330

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3350-1.3425

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5450-1.5525

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as worrying reports out of China have hit global stocks and given a small boost to the Greenback. Data out of China showed that their service industry grew at the slowest pace since last September but more worrying was the announcement of tighter mortgage rules designed to cool off the Chinese property market, if China was to have a property bubble I think the markets around the world would feel it, especially here in Canada where Chinese investment in our local real estate market is a big reason we have seen such a rise over the last 10 years.

The Euro continues to trade under pressure with EURO.USD falling to 1.2980 overnight and EURO.CAD falling to trade at 1.3380. Calls for a new Italian election are once again putting pressure on the Euro, I think Italy will be a mess for a while yet.

The Canadian dollar continues to trade close to the 1.0300 level as it looks for a new direction, after Friday’s in line with expectation GDP report the Loonie was able to pullback some strength, it will now be interesting to see if the Loonie can maintain the momentum and move back towards 1.0200 or again remain week and head back above 1.0300. We should have an active week with the Bank of Canada interest announcement on Wednesday and then the US and Canadian employment reports on Friday.

Have a great week
Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 1.0289 1.0319
CAD/USD 0.9719 0.969
EUR/USD 1.3 1.3019
EUR/CAD 1.3379 1.3437
STG/CAD 1.5483 1.5502
AUD/CAD 1.0438 1.0513
CAD/JPY 90.84 90.06
CAD/CHF 0.9155 0.9112
CAD/HKD 7.5158 7.4938
CAD/CNY 6.0242
CAD/MXN 12.4676
Commodities
Gold $1,576 $1,567
OIL $90.55 $91.41
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N 10.00% 7.24%
1 Week 8.50% 8.59%
1 Month 7.42% 7.15%
 

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