Monday 18 March 2013

GFX Morning FX Commentary March 18th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0175-1.0275

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3210-1.3300

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5430-1.5500

The US Dollar is stronger this morning as the Euro has had its single biggest drop against the dollar in a trading session in over 14 months. The cause of the drop was brought on by actions in Cyprus, as part of their package to gain the EU bailout the Cypriot Prime Minister announced that they would place a tax on all bank accounts, this caused investors to get very worried that such a tax could be applied to other EU countries as well. EURO.USD which had been trading at 1.3080 fell to trade at 1.2900 on the opening last night and looks like it wants to go lower. The mess that is Europe continues, there are reports that Cypriot citizens were lined up at cash machines pulling money out of their accounts as quickly as they can. This measure will almost certainly cause EU investors across the region to pull funds out of EU banks and send it to the US and Canada for safe haven.

With the strength in the US Dollar the Loonie could not hold onto its gains from last week and now USD.CAD trades back above 1.0200. With the equity markets going to be extremely negative today (at this point the Dow Jones is pointing down over 70) I would expect that we will see USD.CAD push higher again. On the flip side the Loonie has done very well against the Euro and Sterling as both of those currency pairs are lower.

With this news out of Europe I look for a busy week, stocks should take it on the chin this week and we should see lots of volatility in currency markets.

Have a great week
Mike

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