GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0910-1.0980

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4865-1.4930

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.7980-1.8050

The US Dollar is mixed this morning as it is stronger against the Euro but Sterling advanced more than it has in a month on some positive retail sales data, it was a quick turnaround from the poor UK housing data that we saw earlier in the week, the kind of movement that we have seen in the Pound this past week just highlights how volatile Sterling will be this year. The Pound is also higher against the Canadian Dollar, GBP.CAD is now near the 1.8000 psychological level, the first time it has reached this level in many years.

Of interesting note overnight was the big decline in the New Zealand Dollar, all the so called commodity currencies (Canada, Australia and New Zealand) have now dropped dramatically since the start of the New Year and there is nothing suggesting that they will recover any time soon.

The Canadian Dollar volatility seems to have settled down and it has once again started to trade in narrow overnight ranges,  I have been expecting some kind of a pullback in USD.CAD below 1.0900 but over the past week it has not been able to materialize, overall we still favour the test of 1.1000 and beyond but short-term strength has been very hard to come by for the Loonie.

Up today we get some secondary US data but also Federal Reserve committee member Lacker making a speech, the currency markets will be looking for any hints on what the Fed will do at the end of the month with their stimulus program. Look for USD.CAD to continue to trade around the 1.0950 level ahead of this speech.

Have a great weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0952			1.0926
CAD/USD		0.9131			0.9152
EUR/USD		1.3597			1.3608
EUR/CAD		1.4894			1.4872
STG/CAD		1.8			1.7848
AUD/CAD		0.9625			0.9603
CAD/JPY		95.31			95.8
CAD/CHF		0.8277			0.8301
CAD/HKD		7.0602			7.0752
CAD/CNY		5.528			5.5407
CAD/MXN		12.1329			12.152
Commodities
Gold		$1,240.00			$1,237.00
OIL		$94.52			$94.44
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.92			81.04
OPEN		80.97			81
US 10YR YIELD		2.84%			2.88%