Wednesday 20 June 2012

GFX Morning FX Commentary, June 20th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0130-1.0230

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2900-1.3025

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6000-1.6125

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as prospects for a Greek coalition Government being formed in the next few days seem to be increasing. Yesterday afternoon saw the EURO.USD jump above the 1.2700 level, it could not stay above that level for long but with events unfolding in Washington today it might just get there again and stay there this time.

Up today we get the US Federal Reserve announcement on interest rates and while we are not expecting any change in interest rates (current rate is 0.25%)fully half the financial institutions that deal with the Fed are expecting that they will introduce further stimulus measures for the US economy. I agree with this view that they will do something today as they don't meet again until July and after that they won't change policy ahead of November so they are not seen as influencing the Presidential election. If they do introduce some new stimulus then the equity markets will all jump higher and the US Dollar will trade lower.

The Canadian Dollar had another quiet night but it continues to hold onto its gains yesterday as it finally broke below the 1.0200 level for the first time in days as the US Dollar weakened against the Euro and other currencies. If we do get new stimulus measures in the US today USD.CAD will fall towards the 1.0150 level and if it is Status Quo below the border then look for it to jump back to 1.0250.

Have a great day
Mike


GFX Morning Currency Rates
Wednesday June 20, 2012
Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 1.0174 1.0226
CAD/USD 0.9829 0.9779
EUR/USD 1.2687 1.2612
EUR/CAD 1.2905 1.2899
STG/CAD 1.6006 1.6028
AUD/CAD 1.0371 1.0329
CAD/JPY 77.57 77.14
CAD/CHF 0.9296 0.9306
CAD/HKD 7.6208 7.5829
CAD/CNY 6.2485 6.2149
CAD/MXN 13.4547
Commodities
Gold $1,613 $1,630
OIL $84.03 $83.14
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N 15.29% 15.35%
1 Week 10.06% 10.68%
1 Month 9.66% 9.94%

Today's Economic Calendar

USA
US Federal Reserve Announcement on Interest Rates (14:30)

CANADA
None


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