GFx Morning Commentary, February 8th, 2013

Friday February 08, 2013

Good Morning   Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the US Dollar is .9925 – 1.0000   Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the Euro is 1.3350 – 1.3450   Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against Sterling is 1.5660 – 1.5760             The FX market appears to have settled down after a tumultuous day in the Euro yesterday.  The Euro long positions quickly hit the exit door yesterday when it was revealed in the ECB statement that President Draghi was actually concerned about the recent strength of the Euro. The overnight trading in the EUR/USD was orderly trading within a fifty point range. The noticeable FX move overnight was the strength in the British Pound which is gaining from being oversold against the Euro and looks to make its biggest weekly gain in 15 weeks against the European single currency. Speculation is growing that the Bank of England is nearing the end of its quantitative easing in contrast to its European counterpart.     The Canadian dollar is basically opening the North American session from where we closed. The direction today will be driven by the important Canadian employment data which is released at 8:30 am. The expectation is for job growth of 4k compared to 39.8k the previous month.  Forecasting job growth in Canada has proven to be difficult as the previous  two releases have far exceeded all expectations. A modest increase in job growth should propel the Canadian dollar higher as its two commodity based counterparts AUD and NZD enjoyed half cent gains overnight.       There is no U.S. economic data out today. The Dow futures are pointing down slightly after finishing yesterday in the red. Oil has rebounded slightly and gold is holding steady. Lots of blowing snow in the Toronto area which may delay our couriers for same day settlement.   GFX Morning Currency Rates Friday February 08, 2013 Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening Yesterday's Opening USD/CAD 0.9973 0.9943 CAD/USD 1.0027 1.0037 EUR/USD 1.341 1.3565 EUR/CAD 1.3376 1.3491 STG/CAD 1.5724 1.562 AUD/CAD 1.0312 1.0271 CAD/JPY 95.69 99.33 CAD/CHF 0.9187 0.9132 CAD/HKD 7.7941 7.7778 CAD/CNY 6.2475 6.2613 CAD/MXN 12.7296 Commodities Gold $1,672 $1,675 OIL $96.29 $96.91 Option Volatility Canada O/N 5.98% 8.98% 1 Week 5.94% 5.92% 1 Month 5.83% 5.82%