Thursday 21 February 2013

GFX Morning FX Commentary Feb 21st, 2013

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0140-1.0220    

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3420-1.3500

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5545-1.5620

The US Dollar staged a big rally yesterday as the US Federal Reserve indicated that they are considering removing their quantative easing program earlier than previously considered, on this announcement US equity markets dropped, the Euro and Pound were hit hard and the Loonie gave up a little bit of strength.

In overnight markets the same trend continued as equity markets were all lower and the Euro continued to drop. The Euro traded below 1.3200 for the first time in weeks as a poor manufacturing and services report showed the economy is slowing faster than thought in the EU region. This market reaction shows just how closely the world's financial markets are watching any moves by the Fed, a single statement that they are considering ending the QE program and markets go crazy.

The Canadian Dollar continues to weaken but with all that is happening with the Euro and other currencies the Canadian Dollar is actually faring quite well against the Greenback. USD.CAD is back trading at the high end of the recent range and I think at some point should test above 1.0200, I am not convinced that it will hold very long above that level but if world markets continue to be nervous about the Fed then the Loonie will remain vulnerable.

Up today we get a slew of US economic data including  US inflation data ,leading indicators and Philly Fed index. All of these should be watched closely by the equity and currency markets so I am expecting a bit of volatility. Make sure you have your orders in early today to take advantage of any sudden moves.

Have a great day
Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 1.0185 1.0137
CAD/USD 0.9815 0.9863
EUR/USD 1.3185 1.3389
EUR/CAD 1.3431 1.3573
STG/CAD 1.5537 1.5518
AUD/CAD 1.0447 1.0464
CAD/JPY 91.18 92.26
CAD/CHF 0.9145 0.9088
CAD/HKD 7.5929 7.6281
CAD/CNY 6.1235 6.1518
CAD/MXN 12.5715 12.5056
Commodities
Gold $1,572 $1,592
OIL $94.05 $96.97
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N 6.50% 5.50%
1 Week 7.45% 6.59%
1 Month 6.92% 6.26%

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