Monday 25 February 2013

GFX Morning FX Commentary February 25th, 2013

Good Morning

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0180-1.0260

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3570-1.3650

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5100-1.5175

The US Dollar is mixed this morning as it is weaker against the Euro and stronger against Sterling. In the UK the pound has dropped to levels last seen in July 2010 against the Greenback and the Euro as Moody's announced a lowering of the UK credit rating to Aa1 from AAA after the markets closed on Friday. This move was not totally unexpected as the ongoing recession in the UK has left the Government running high deficits, we look for Sterling to trade with a weak bias for the foreseeable future.

In Europe the Euro is trading stronger against the US Dollar as the Italian Democratic party is expected to be able to form a coalition government and keep the austerity measures in place after the results of today's election. If on the other hand Berlusconi’s party fares better than expected then the Euro should trade weaker over the immediate short-term. With the overnight strength in the Euro, EURO.CAD has jumped much higher over the weekend and looks like it wants to break back above 1.3600.

The Canadian Dollar continues to trade weaker against the US Dollar and is now firmly entrenched above the 1.0200 level but only traded in a narrow overnight range. Given all the hoopla surrounding the Euro and Sterling at the moment I would not expect much of a spotlight to be on the Loonie this week so I am not looking for any dramatic trading ranges.

Up today we do get a lot of secondary data out of the US today so I won’t be surprised if we do get some enhanced volatility but it may be more EURO.CAD moving than USD.CAD. For the short-term it still looks like USD.CAD has room to go higher but we may yet see some Canadian Dollar strength over the medium term.

Mike
Have a great day.

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 1.0227 1.0188
CAD/USD 0.9778 0.9812
EUR/USD 1.3276 1.3172
EUR/CAD 1.3581 1.3423
STG/CAD 1.5485 1.5558
AUD/CAD 1.0537 1.0524
CAD/JPY 91.63 91.45
CAD/CHF 0.9043 0.9143
CAD/HKD 7.5623 7.59
CAD/CNY 6.0921 6.1214
CAD/MXN 12.5093
Commodities
Gold $1,592 $1,579
OIL $94.24 $92.98
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N 6.05% 6.00%
1 Week 7.42% 7.40%
1 Month 6.92% 6.90%
 

 

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