Monday 9 September 2013

GFX Morning FX Commentary Sept 9th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0340-1.0420

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3670-1.3850

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6260-1.6340

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as the financial markets get ready for the vote in Congress on military intervention in Syria. Overnight the Yen was the biggest mover as USD.JPY traded above 100 for a little while as the announcement that Tokyo has been awarded the 2020 Olympic Games is viewed as providing a boost for the economy over the next number of years. The Aussie and Kiwi Dollars are also stronger after China reported a better than expected export number, AUD.USD hit a 3-week high so it has staged quite a recovery over the last little while.

The question of when the US Federal Reserve will remove some stimulus keeps weighing on the currency markets, with the poor jobs report out of the US on Friday I think any change in September is very unlikely and another poor report will almost certainly push the tapering into 2014.

The Canadian Dollar is marginally stronger after Friday’s big gain, it will now settle into its new trading range near the 1.0400 level against the Greenback. It has done really well against the Euro and Sterling, just over a week ago EURO.CAD was at 1.4100 and GBP.CAD was at 1.6400, EURO.CAD is especially lower at is now trades near 1.3700. If you are a buyer of Euro you may want to take  advantage of these rates on a forward contract, with German elections on the horizon we could easily see a spike in the Euro if Merkel wins the elections.

Nothing of importance out on the economic front today so I think USD.CAD will stay in a confined range, given how fast USD.CAD has dropped I would expect that we will see a bit of a pullback higher above 1.0400 before we see any further Canadian Dollar strength. If we see the US Congress pass an attack on Syria today the effect  should be US Dollar positive and USD.CAD could jump back towards 1.0450.

Have a great week
Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 1.0385 1.0454
CAD/USD 0.963 0.9565
EUR/USD 1.3192 1.3106
EUR/CAD 1.3702 1.5571
STG/CAD 1.6277 1.6282
AUD/CAD 0.9554 0.957
CAD/JPY 95.8 0.954
CAD/CHF 0.9017 0.9038
CAD/HKD 7.4614 7.4134
CAD/CNY 5.8912 5.85
CAD/MXN 12.71 12.8009
Commodities
Gold $1,386.00 $1,364.00
OIL $109.95 $108.53
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE 82.18 82.67
OPEN 82.12 82.64
US 10YR YIELD 2.94% 2.97%

 

 

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