GFX Morning FX Commentary September 20th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0250-1.0325

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3880-1.3950

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6460-1.6520

The US Dollar is marginally weaker against the Euro and Sterling this morning. In Europe the Euro is stronger as the upcoming Consumer Report is expected to show that confidence in the Euro-Zone is picking which should translate into better consumer demand.. The Euro is also benefitting from recent polls that show Chancellor Merkels party ahead of her nearest rival in Sunday’s general election, the lead will not be enough to claim a majority but she will be able to form a new coalition government. If we get this result the Euro should push a little higher,  if we get a surprise result and she loses power the Euro will get hammered.

As we expected the Loonie gave back some of its recent gains it made after the Fed announcement on Wednesday, those type of knee-jerk reactionary moves can rarely be sustained over the long haul. I won't be surprised now if USD.CAD settles in around the 1.0300 level for a while. The Loonie is also very weak against the Euro and Sterling, both of those currencies have held onto their gains after the Fed announcement while Canada has all but given back it gains. EURO.CAD has jumped to 1.3900 again and GBP.CAD was up over 1.6500 during the overnight session.

Up today we get the Canadian CPI report for August but unless it shows inflation is on the rise I doubt it will have any significant effect on the Loonie. US Dollar buyers need to look at 1.0275/1.0250 as good levels to buy some cheap US and US Dollar sellers needs to revise their short-term expectations and look at anything close to 1.0325 as a good level to sell at.

Have a great weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0288			1.0196
CAD/USD		0.972			0.9807
EUR/USD		1.3541			1.3554
EUR/CAD		1.3933			1.3822
STG/CAD		1.6491			1.6392
AUD/CAD		0.9698			0.9652
CAD/JPY		96.6			96.98
CAD/CHF		0.8836			0.892
CAD/HKD		7.5383			7.602
CAD/CNY		5.9497			6.0023
CAD/MXN
Commodities
Gold		$1,358.00			$1,365.00
OIL		$108.01			$108.66
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.48			80.47
OPEN		80.44			80.23
US 10YR YIELD		2.74%			2.74%