GFX Morning FX Commentary September 10th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0300-1.0380

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3650-1.3730

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6200-1.6275

The US Dollar is mixed this morning as the threat of the US launching missiles at Syria seem to have diminished for the time being. Financial markets seem to have embraced the Russian proposal as a solution to the Chemical weapons problem, equity markets around the world were all positive overnight and the US Dollar was weaker against the Commodity currencies as the demand for safe haven assets (US Treasury Bonds) has diminished. The markets were also helped by better than expected growth data out of China, EURO.USD fell to trade at 1.3230 which was a big move after it traded stronger all day yesterday, Sterling was a bit stronger as a better than expected housing report gave it a bit of a boost.

As I mention the commodity currencies are all stronger this morning on the Chinese data and stronger equity markets. The Canadian Dollar has again been a beneficiary of these developments as it continued to strengthen during the overnight session, the combination of calming markets and a couple of strong Canadian economic reports have stopped the Loonie from weakening and seem to be pushing USD.CAD lower. The thought that an American attack on Syria would push USD.CAD higher seems to be diminishing so in the short-term we may see USD.CAD push towards 1.0300 at some point today.

The only economic data due to be released today is Canadian Housing starts at 08:15, if this number is strong then we could see the push to 1.0300 start to unfold, I prefer a bit of a pullback towards 1.0350/1.0375 to start the day but that would most likely need a poor housing number. If you are a USD Dollar buyer you really need to be thinking about doing some forwards at these levels, just last week you would have been paying 1.0550 for your US Dollars and now you may get them at 1.0300, there is nothing wrong with taking money off the table when you get a winning hand.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0355			1.0385
CAD/USD		0.9657			0.963
EUR/USD		1.3244			1.3192
EUR/CAD		1.3717			1.3702
STG/CAD		1.6259			1.6277
AUD/CAD		0.9616			0.9554
CAD/JPY		96.66			95.8
CAD/CHF		0.9024			0.9017
CAD/HKD		7.4827			7.4614
CAD/CNY		5.9078			5.8912
CAD/MXN		12.6656			12.71
Commodities
Gold		$1,372.00			$1,386.00
OIL		$108.65			$109.95
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		81.82			82.18
OPEN		81.92			82.12
US 10YR YIELD		2.89%			2.94%