Thursday 13 December 2012

GFX Morning FX Commentary December 14th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9800-.9870

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2820-1.2900   

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5850-1.5930

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as equity markets around the world turned negative on the US Federal Reserve announcement tying the interest rate to the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation. EURO.USD flirted with the 1.3100 level for a while and then backed off to trade at 1.3050, Sterling is also weaker this morning as a poor manufacturing report weighed on the Pound.

The Canadian Dollar is unchanged against the US Dollar as the Loonie was once again ignored by currency traders, the sentiment still seems to be forming for a weaker US Dollar with a gradual strengthening for the Canadian Dollar, US Dollar sellers need to stand ready to sell some forwards on any pullbacks towards .9900 in the coming days, this rate may not seem attractive at the moment but if I am right and we start to see USD.CAD moving back towards .9700 and .9600 in the coming weeks then having some forwards on at the .9850 to .9900 levels will look very good.

Up today we get the release of the US Retail Sales report for November and the Producer Price Index for November, given that the Federal Reserve has tied the interest rate to the inflation rate any inflation data will be watched all the more closely by currency traders, any sign that inflation is starting to rise will get currency traders excited and they will start to buy up the Greenback. We also get some secondary Canadian economic data today so I am hopeful that we get some enhanced volatility.

 

Have a great day
Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 0.9836 0.9853
CAD/USD 1.0164 1.0147
EUR/USD 1.3054 1.0327
EUR/CAD 1.2841 1.2837
STG/CAD 1.5858 1.5908
AUD/CAD 1.037 1.0392
CAD/JPY 84.81 84.05
CAD/CHF 94.5 0.9437
CAD/HKD 7.8747 7.844
CAD/CNY 6.3352 6.3415
CAD/MXN 12.9679 12.9321
Commodities
Gold $1,683 $1,715
OIL $86.20 $86.28
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N 7.00% 7.48%
1 Week 5.15% 5.16%
1 Month 5.08% 5.08%

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